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EUR/USD what price action to expect post Powell's speech?
reasons why uptrend to be capped at 1.1850 ahead of EU CPI data?
1- Germany >> economic recovery is coming under threat from a persistent global supply squeeze and rising Covid-19 infections, " it is clear that the growth outlook will have to be revised downwards " according to Ifo president Clemens Fuest, post the big slump in economists' confidence.
2- EU >> supply chain snarl ups are hitting Europe's economic recovery.
3- EU >> the nation had 507 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in the first 2 weeks of August, according to European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, well above the limit of 75, also Eu is planning to discuss travel curbs on visitors from the U.S.
4- ECB monetary policy update >> Lane stressed that policy makers are determined to keep financing conditions across the 19 nation area region favorable and signaled that they'll take their time to decide how to conduct bond purchases once their pandemic emergency program expires. (dovish and extended fiscal support)
reasons for the current uptrend to retest 1.1830 to be capped at1.1850?
1- Fed monetary policy update >> the Fed Chair reinforced the message that it'd be appropriate to start the tapering the $120 billion a month bond-buying program before year end, though he said the central bank won't be in a hurry to start raising interest rates thereafter, he also DID NOT give a specific timeline, acknowledging that delta variant is "clearly a problem", in the mean time Raphael Bostic sees first rate hike at the end of 2022 =
Considered as a mixed data because still the calendar date to start the process of tapering is not officially announced given holding dovish for longer time after tapering will increase the government debt, ONLY that a prospect to shift to HAWKISH by end of 2022 is still considered an earlier than anticipated discussion. ( tapering + dovish = stable inflation ) + 3.5 trillion fiscal support = rising inflation.
what can shortly reverse the uptrend?
- Calendar data specially the main catalyst (EU CPI ) , in case EU CPI rises if would sign for rising inflation in EU and it would confirm no break above 1.1850 and maybe a return to the bottom range at 1.1735 - (EYES ON EU CALENDAR DATA SPECIALLY EU CPI) -
CONCLUSION
- General price range ahead of EU CPI data ( 1.1735 - 1.1835 ) -
- Rise in EU CPI data = to return to bottom price range at 1.1735 -
- Drop in EU CPI data = to break above 1.1850 -
- Current long position was predicted in previous idea near support 1.1700 -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
1- Germany >> economic recovery is coming under threat from a persistent global supply squeeze and rising Covid-19 infections, " it is clear that the growth outlook will have to be revised downwards " according to Ifo president Clemens Fuest, post the big slump in economists' confidence.
2- EU >> supply chain snarl ups are hitting Europe's economic recovery.
3- EU >> the nation had 507 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in the first 2 weeks of August, according to European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, well above the limit of 75, also Eu is planning to discuss travel curbs on visitors from the U.S.
4- ECB monetary policy update >> Lane stressed that policy makers are determined to keep financing conditions across the 19 nation area region favorable and signaled that they'll take their time to decide how to conduct bond purchases once their pandemic emergency program expires. (dovish and extended fiscal support)
reasons for the current uptrend to retest 1.1830 to be capped at1.1850?
1- Fed monetary policy update >> the Fed Chair reinforced the message that it'd be appropriate to start the tapering the $120 billion a month bond-buying program before year end, though he said the central bank won't be in a hurry to start raising interest rates thereafter, he also DID NOT give a specific timeline, acknowledging that delta variant is "clearly a problem", in the mean time Raphael Bostic sees first rate hike at the end of 2022 =
Considered as a mixed data because still the calendar date to start the process of tapering is not officially announced given holding dovish for longer time after tapering will increase the government debt, ONLY that a prospect to shift to HAWKISH by end of 2022 is still considered an earlier than anticipated discussion. ( tapering + dovish = stable inflation ) + 3.5 trillion fiscal support = rising inflation.
what can shortly reverse the uptrend?
- Calendar data specially the main catalyst (EU CPI ) , in case EU CPI rises if would sign for rising inflation in EU and it would confirm no break above 1.1850 and maybe a return to the bottom range at 1.1735 - (EYES ON EU CALENDAR DATA SPECIALLY EU CPI) -
CONCLUSION
- General price range ahead of EU CPI data ( 1.1735 - 1.1835 ) -
- Rise in EU CPI data = to return to bottom price range at 1.1735 -
- Drop in EU CPI data = to break above 1.1850 -
- Current long position was predicted in previous idea near support 1.1700 -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
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