✳️ Flux | Elliot Wave Theory 101 Coupled With Buy & Hold

2月15日

I am looking at a flat correction, 3-3-5. This is the way to use the Elliot Wave Theory system simplified. No "theory", not "measuring" by the centimeter the distance of a "wave". Not updating the concept and making it super complicated and useless at the same time but a system that we can use in order to have a better view of the market, in order to spot some good chart setups that we can trade.

If you can spot a five wave count, by zooming out or looking at the bigger picture you can determine what is likely the next move.

Here we have the 3-3-5, a flat, and we have know this to be a correction.
Downward movement —if the correction is over then we can assume that the market will turn.

Ok, we count this just as a single signal and we don't have to trade or make decisions based on it.

Say you spot the 3-3-5 and as the end you get a hammer candlestick, right at the bottom of the trend. The next day you get a full green candle with high volume and now you have a combination of candlestick patterns with Elliot Wave.

Then you notice that the action moved above EMA10 and EMA21 and a clear picture start to reveal itself.
You can even change the chart settings and use the Renko chart and either confirm or negate a change of trend.

All these signals combined can help you improve your chances of success. It is not that the market won't produce another low, a lower low but that you will be right many more times than wrong and that's the goal.

To know the direction of the market, just zoom out or use a higher timeframe.
If the trend is bullish long-term but prices are moving down and you can spot the waves, the end of the correction will lead to the next leg which would be a continuation of the trend. Corrections are counter-trend of course, so any down move as shown on this chart and lead to an up-move when the down move is done.

Let me show you something that happens often... Instead of wave C (Z) ending at the current low, the market can make one more low as in a stop-loss/liquidity hunt even before moving up:


The chart is only for illustration but this can happen.

This is normal of course. As we grow and mature, the markets also grow and evolve.
They become more advanced and more complex, the next generation will have it worse than us because they will have to deal with more data, more shakeouts, more fake moves, more fake signals, failed signals and so on...

If you want to learn the Elliot Wave system, which is a great tool to have, then you need to go to the source. Those people "updating" the system in 200 pages is truly just a bad joke.

You can read the books where Robert R. Prechter Jr. is the editor starting with Ralph Nelson Elliot Masterworks... You read them all one by one; You don't have to draw waves, you don't have to memorize anything, you just have to read. When you get to the last book, you will have the entire concept, the entire system learned with no left brain effort at all. Then you don't have to draw waves nor count waves, you can just look at the chart and having this knowledge, intuitively you make a better choice or maybe even entertain yourself with the predictions, so and so forth.

I can tell you this from experience, the system works great today just like it worked almost a hundred years ago... It doesn't need to be exact, it just needs to help you gain an edge and with this edge you can trade but trading and reading charts is a completely different game.

Be prepared to invest years of your time in this adventure if you want to achieve success.
If you think you can get it done in 2 weeks or 6 months... You will have a very hard wake-up call. When you think you understand the market, everything changes and a new challenge shows up; Overtime you realize it is not about the market but human psychology, personal growth and emotional control.

If you become a decent human being, whatever that means, you can achieve your goals.
If you lie to yourself and blame others for your mistakes, the market will take everything you own.
It will prove you wrong over and over and over, until you accept the truth and realize that in order to grow personally, in order to achieve success you need to take care of yourself, your friends, your family, your home.

Once you have a sane and stable mind, trading becomes as easy as just buying and hold.

Namaste.

3月17日

ノート

This one is looking good, more than 100% so far; Enjoy the profits!
It is hard to be believe its been only a month, it seems forever... Much more growth is possible. Patience is key!