Upcoming short/reversal on GBPNZD in the next few days

7月16日

My FICO indicator works by making a DXY-like index for each currency, then plotting their rate of change on an oscillator to show relative strength/weakness. When two currencies are on opposite ends and change directions, it is an entry signal.

In this case, GBP (dull green, top) and NZD (lime green, bottom) are on opposite sides of the oscillator channel. The directional flip has not happened yet, but it is inevitable. We must wait for this to confirm first, since the current trend still has momentum.

I estimate it could take about 3 days for the trend to finish, and over that time, price could visit anywhere in the 2.12556 to 2.16300 level. Once we enter, we'll target about 1080 pips short and let the trend ride in our favor. This can change depending on what the price actually does in the next week and is also based on current values.

7月25日

トレード終了: ストップロスに到達

The entry signal (GBP turning negative) occurred on Jul 22 at a closing price of 2.16320 and ATR of 0.01141

If the trend continued 0.618x ATR:
- Entry SHORT: 2.17025
- TP: 2.15884
- SL: 2.18872

If the trend continued 1.000x ATR:
- Entry SHORT: 2.17461
- TP: 2.16320
- SL: 2.19308

I will mark this idea as being incorrect. The price levels on the chart show my guess for where the price should have gone. Even if I waited for the signal and then drew the prices as above, it was still hard to tell exactly where to enter. Still, waiting for 1.000x ATR for continuation before entering seems prudent.