Friday's session broke my plans and with the White House comments made a foolish rally in the lasts hours of trading.
Is it Russia really going to invade Ukraine? Honestly I have no idea, I do not have the intel they have but it would be seen as an unprecedented attack and I hardly doubt it. Russian economy will be isolated and sanctioned and their natural resources will be much harder to be absorbed in the "legal" market.
Being said that, I think it is worth to see the market opening and consider that a diplomatic solution will be in place before February 20th. That's the date the Russian's have in mind to cool down the situation and deescalate tensions with some troops withdrawal. But make no mistake, a simple unfortunate message can cause a lot of damage.
At this point I am feeling much more confortable holding shorts rather than going long but it all depends on the opening and further development of the crisis. Last week's green candle is quite relevant and a correction seems due at this point, but expect a lot of volatility.
I always recommend option trading in such cases to cover your portfolios.
STAY SAFE. Cheers
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