What goes up must come down. Lumber 101

2022年2月27日

Whenever I open up a chart of any asset I like to look at the big picture first pulling up the oldest chart I can find. With Lumber chart I could instantly recognise a pattern called diagonal. I labelled it a Supercyclic wave as it has taken nearly 48 years to complete.

After the competition of this pattern usually you can expect a bear market as a correction. Correction takes place both in time and price. In this case of lumbar we had a very quick correction of 73.45% in price as a first leg in May 2021 only lasting 3 months. Now i think that a Bull market that lasted 48 years corrected only in 3 months and the correction has finished as we are already up 190% from August 2021 lows, does not seem very convincing.

So I expect the price to reverse close to ATH again and keep moving up and down like a kangaroo for a long time. So far it's looking like a Zigzag pattern.

Am going to have 3 attempts as a short with proper risk management.





The Trade

Short at 1200
Stop Loss - 1311
TP 1 - 843
TP2 - 618

This is not a financial advice. I am a degenerated gambler so wish me luck.

2022年3月4日

トレード終了: ストップロスに到達

Attempt 2
Entry - 1490
Stop - 1580
Take Profit - 1530
R:R - 10.67

First leg down is in 5 waves or impulse then it could only be interpreted as a zigzag. B wave should almost be finished or should not go above 90% of wave A. In that case it will be a flat. But because A was a 5 wave impulse not 3 waves, cant be flat.