LTCUSD Perspective And Levels: Retesting 50 Support.

2017年10月4日

LTCUSD Update: While these markets slowly retrace, this market is following as expected, and I wanted to point out some important levels to consider as the price action unfolds.

First let's begin with the 55 level which is the .382 of the broad bearish swing. This level is the current resistance that is keeping this market in the low 50s. The fact that price has formed a double top and is still in the process of retracing is certainly a sign of weakness which makes sense in a generally weak BTC environment.

What is interesting is the 50 support level which it has retested a second time and retracing higher. This double bottom formation is the kind that offers opportunities on smaller time frames. If this double bottom holds, price action will have established a higher low as well (relative to the 44 low.). The minor lower high at 52 will have to be taken out in order to confirm the double bottom.

So what does this mean? This pair is building a bullish structure, in the face of a somewhat weak BTC. BTC and the alt coins are slowly selling, but it is not overly bearish, especially since the 4104 level has still not been taken out. If that market manages to to hold up, this market is more likely to push higher because it is acting relatively strong. Even if the 50 level breaks, it still has the 49 to 47 support area (.618 of recent bullish swing) to get through as well. A lower high (55 to 57 area) should lead to a lower low, and if the new low fails to unfold, it is reasonable to take that as a sign of strength.

Keep in mind I am not saying this market WILL fail to make a lower low, I am just sharing how I will interpret this price action IF it does. In that scenario I would also expect to see a more bullish price action in BTC as well.

To make it clear, these markets are still too risky for any swing trade longs, so I do not intend to take any, BUT if price action starts showing clear signs of bullish momentum on the bigger picture, I will be looking for an opportunity to open a swing trade in this market. It is certainly worth keeping on your radar.

In summary, I am seeing relatively bullish structure forming in this market while the other markets contend with bearish price action. This hidden strength can lead to higher prices if BTC manages to push through it's major 4550 resistance zone. In a bullish scenario, if the 57 level is taken out, this pair is one I would consider buying on a subsequent retrace. Of course IF BTC falls apart, which is what I have been anticipating, the only buying I will do is at the extreme lows (if these marekts offer such an opportunity, which again is not a swing trade). Overall, this market is certainly one worth keeping an eye on as we wait for BTC to choose which way it wants to go.

Comments and questions welcome.