Natural Gas Scenarios

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If the yellow curve does not hold, or the two red marked levels below, the white path with a continuation of the downward channel can be expected. Otherwise, we might see an attempt to shoot for the white rectangle. For such a scenario, first a break of the green curve needs to happen, and then the price action around the potential support of the yellow line or the red price levels below should give us bullish signs. The other 2 price levels above are potential resistance levels which need to be pierced.

!: If the yellow arc does not hold and the price doesn't shoot up, carefully watch out for any significant drops below any higher lows that have been formed in the meantime, which will signal a weakness in the potential bullish wave.

ノート

The green curve was pierced, tested, and then the price shoots up. Pierced the first potential resistance level. Would be interesting to see if it is tested back.

I was expecting more of an initial test of the yellow curve (purple path in this snapshot) but this scenario is even better with this bullish momentum. Hopefully this yellow curve holds if tested in the future, even higher, and higher lows might provide better levels for potential trailing stop.

ノート

Don't think this new higher low is a good zone for a trailing stop loss (white rectangle). I would rather consider the yellow rectangle zone which takes into account scenario marked with purple path.

ノート

Interestingly enough, the top of the bull wave peaked around the level where the orange path is interrupted. We are now hovering around the marked level of 2.79, a little bit below it. Trailing stop can be moved from 2.6 to 2.64.

ノート

After breaking the yellow curve the price retested the 2.64 and now is at the 2.54. Don't know if there is still bullish potential in this one. It would have to revisit 2.64 and break it.

ノート

Bounced between 2.53, 2.64 and then 2.416. Bulls are fighting with the bears here.

ノート

From 2.64 to 2.78 and back. And now back at 2.78. Interested to see if this level is broken upside.

ノート

I don't think it is a coincidence that we are now exactly between the orange scenario and the white scenario, after the orange one collapsed with lower lows and lower highs. Currently, after the bull run from 2.42 to 2.85 in which we had higher highs and higher lows, we are at the support marked level of 2.64 and this level needs to be broken if we are to see more downwards movement. I would say this and the top level of 2.79 have been pretty solid so far.

ノート

A high again at 2.79 and this could be heading downhill to revisit 2.41

ノート

Another peak at 2.79 but those higher lows are trending up. That pattern needs to be broken in order to give the bears some hopes. Neutral on this one for now.