Daily Recap - Semiconductors, Mag 7, and Crypto

2024年7月24日

Here's some thoughts on today's action and some updates on some of my recent bearish ideas. So far it's a negative reaction for GOOGL and TSLA after earnings, so it looks like QQQ will be gapping down, but there's a long way to go until open.

Still having some audio issues with my mic making crackling and popping sounds. Trying to figure it out, but I think I mitigated it enough to make this video presentable.

2024年7月24日

ノート

For those asking, the direct link to the short thesis presentation is here:
advancedplays.com/short-thesis.pdf

The original TV idea:

Update:

The Japanese Yen and US treasury yields were a big part of my thesis, but after the recent change of rate cut expectations I think the Yen will be less likely to collapse. However, if we have a serious global recession similar to 2008, I think it's still vulnerable due to the extreme inflation and debt the Japanese economy is dealing with.

There are many potential catalysts and I don't claim to know what it's going to be or when. I only claim that this is near the end and within 3-6 months the market will look entirely different.