PCQI vs NAS: How often are bear's right? Not much.
I went back 7 months to check what traditionally happens the day after PCQI (NQ Put/Call) hits 1.00 or higher. If the next day was green I made the line green, etc. Out of the last 18 times, Bears got the next day right only 3 times. So 16% correct. 2 of those times the PCQI was at 2.0, so Bulls were also shorting. Meaning when PCQI only hit ~1.0 Bears were only right about the next day 5% of the time.
Also remaining really high at close is usually the sign of a bear trap. Real crashes usually peak early and sell off as bears cash in. So I'm a calling a Green Monday. Add to the fact we're at the bottom of the 1yr bull channel and didn't get close to touching the 100D ema. Until the bull channel breaks, I will respect the trend. Many people worried about the Treasury's extra cash and assume JPOW is gonna rate rates, but that's not a foregone conclusion.
Also remaining really high at close is usually the sign of a bear trap. Real crashes usually peak early and sell off as bears cash in. So I'm a calling a Green Monday. Add to the fact we're at the bottom of the 1yr bull channel and didn't get close to touching the 100D ema. Until the bull channel breaks, I will respect the trend. Many people worried about the Treasury's extra cash and assume JPOW is gonna rate rates, but that's not a foregone conclusion.
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Don't b'leeeed me just watch
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This is my current position for transparency. i.imgur.com/4hO8mNG.jpg