2nd Half of 2023 - Range and volatile

2023年7月12日

As projected at the beginning of the year, the bull market began after the third week of 2023, shortly after crossing above the secondary downtrend line. It appears that this bull market may be nearing its end, and there is a possibility that it will enter into a range for the remainder of the year.

Here is a hypothetical scenario based on the current data and developments:

1) Inflation may not reach its target of 2% in a sustained manner

2) If interest rates remain elevated

3i) It may trigger another banking crisis
3ii) The March banking crisis was caused by higher rates
3iii) Most banks today are still at March level

4i) Why a greater risk of a recession?
4ii) Current GDP is trending downward
4iii) Current export numbers are trending downward
4iv) Both numbers are below pre-covid levels

Reference for trading in Nasdaq:
CME E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $5.00

CME Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $0.50

Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
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