I still think we hit the same upside levels but think we take a different path to get there than I originally thought.
I've been anticipating a big move down before we hit the top, and I still think it happens, but I think we go to different price levels and it happens in a different timeframe than I previously thought.
Everyone thinks the trade is going to be simple to the $1200 or so price target, however, I don't think it's going to be that easy.
I'm anticipating a 20% pullback before we get to the top, to shake out longs before the last leg higher.
I think we continue higher up until the $1071 zone (resistance) around May 29th. Then fall 20% or afterwards to $877 region before continuing up on the last leg higher.
What would be the catalyst? Well next week we have GDP and initial jobless claim readings on Thursday and then PCE on Friday. I think that would be the catalyst to bring price back down below $900 before the final leg higher.
I think it's a sharp quick move, then we resume the path to the top. Top should be the upper resistance levels.
Let's see if it plays out.
I've been anticipating a big move down before we hit the top, and I still think it happens, but I think we go to different price levels and it happens in a different timeframe than I previously thought.
Everyone thinks the trade is going to be simple to the $1200 or so price target, however, I don't think it's going to be that easy.
I'm anticipating a 20% pullback before we get to the top, to shake out longs before the last leg higher.
I think we continue higher up until the $1071 zone (resistance) around May 29th. Then fall 20% or afterwards to $877 region before continuing up on the last leg higher.
What would be the catalyst? Well next week we have GDP and initial jobless claim readings on Thursday and then PCE on Friday. I think that would be the catalyst to bring price back down below $900 before the final leg higher.
I think it's a sharp quick move, then we resume the path to the top. Top should be the upper resistance levels.
Let's see if it plays out.
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Other possibility is the $1152 level before a drop. Let's see what happens w/ price action today and tomorrow.
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Took some $900P for 6/14 at open
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Two paths from here, we continue down or we see the final high in the next day or two.
Will continue adding to puts if we move higher because the top and drop will be a quick one should we get to the upper levels.
Will continue adding to puts if we move higher because the top and drop will be a quick one should we get to the upper levels.
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Welp so far price action looking bearish. Options are up 65% now at close.
Let's see if we continue down here. All eyes on PCE tomorrow.
Let's see if we continue down here. All eyes on PCE tomorrow.
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Think we won't see the sustained down move until Wednesday. Likely bottom by Friday next week.
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Also a chance that we see the top resistance get tagged tomorrow. I'll add the remainder of my put position there should it happen.
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If we do not hit the top resistance today or tomorrow, then there is likely a large pullback and one more push into the high in July.
I added the remainder of my put position before close.
Let's see what happens tomorrow.
I added the remainder of my put position before close.
Let's see what happens tomorrow.
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Bought some 1120P 6/7 and more 6/14 900P
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Top right here.
