After the April Tariff collapse, the index rose significantly off of the bottom and blew right past prior highs. There is a need to back-test to the $540 range. Further, which the government taking fascist equity positions in publicly traded equities and threatening the independence of the federal reserve, there are black swans looming everywhere. Also, tariffs will soon start impacting inflation, just as cracks are forming in the job market. However, can you really rely on the data since the head of BLS was fired for telling the truth about jobs?
トレード稼働中
Look for confirmation with a break below $560 with volume.ノート
Scenario 1: NVDA beats earnings, markets rally, and the economy looks strong → September rate cuts are canceled.Scenario 2: NVDA misses earnings, markets soften, and the economy looks weak → September rate cuts remain on course, but growth doubts emerge.
Scenario 3: NVDA beats earnings, markets rally, and the economy looks strong. Trump removes Cook → Rate cuts stay on track, markets surge, but inflation accelerates to new highs.
Scenario 4: NVDA beats earnings, markets rally, and the economy looks strong. Trump removes Cook, and Powell resigns → Rate cuts stay on track, Trump secures a 50 bp cut, stocks surpass dot-com bubble levels, followed by a crash and deep depression.
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