SHOPing for holders - until $150

2022年5月24日

WHY I'M STILL BEARISH

• Shopify [I]still trading at 85x earnings - hugely overvalued
  
• Next support 50% away at $150
  
• Stick model (white dotted lines) yet to be crossed to the upside, with air below
  
• Approaching recent lows from May 13 of $306, lower highs not yet in
  
• RSI still showing weakness in red bear-zone and further sell side possible going into June
  
• Moving average still shows very much in bear market, and a lot of time must pass before it can reset and reclaim to be in a bull market
  
• Insufficient history of corrections and therefore bottom of channel unlikely to provide support
  

REASONS TO BE BULLISH

• Just had a 10% drawdown in a day and huge sales already
  
• Decent uplift in volume of late, although still expecting more in a capitulation event
  
• At bottom of exponential channel, typically in the buy-zone in market corrections
  
• Eventually a countermove will come, but that may not be forthcoming for another month or two
  

SUMMARY
Overall I would steer clear from this shipwreck. I had been expecting a bounce of late for Shopify but until this stock breaks the white dotted stick-model and betters it's recent volume, it's best to remain on the sidelines. I would say that shorting from here is high-risk, low-reward. There isn't enough history, with SHOP being listed well clear of the GFC to rely-upon it holding the purple channel. That said, still expecting a further 50% capitulation from these levels.

2022年5月28日

ノート

Looking medium-term bullish now for SHOPIFY.
Broken above the white dotted trend lines for a bear market rally. Decent long entry with reasonable risk/reward for a few weeks