銀先物（当限つなぎ足）ショート
Reminder: The Everything Bubble includes precious metals
I have fiddled with the time frame settings to get one that will show the big move incoming without getting us to far ahead or behind the action to give us a clear view. So far that is the 3D interweek chart and the OBV EMAS have been used to focus on the two main things that I am focusing on to be a good trader, price action and volume action. The addition of the word action is of course, and most traders/posters I follow now will use the term price action but merely refer to volume. They may describle the volume action as falling or rising but that is about it.
The red oval and arrow show the classic bullish divergence that set up the move from ~$14 to ~19.50. That divergence has performed and we cannot reasonably expect any furhter performance as the price action is now about to trigger the bearish divergence seen in the technical double top on the OBV shown with the purple arrow but the downward canted oval on the price action. The descending triangle should be clear.
The OBV 100 EMA shows that on a very high time frame that there was bearish divergent volume this uptrend. The horizon helps highlight how this lower OBV EMA high is showing a decrease in buying power and is exhaustion move with not enough buyers coming in to support the move.
In order to keep this target setting simple, and because I have done it several times, I have the common fib extension ratios from the peak of the descending triangle to this second high.
The lighter blue SMA is the 300w SMA will be very strong support. If you look at the 3 month or quarterly bollinger bands that is the lower limit of the 3rd standard deviation band. It makes a lot of sense to buy that aggressively looking for a bounce off of Bollinger Band/SMA/Fib Ratio support. This may cause a decade long consolidation which will be frustrating for those hoping for the next bull run. I sill think a run from this dip to $35 is possible, but it will take some patience.
Most of fib extensions form a thicket around the 400 Month Simple moving average in the darker blue. This would be a target for a failed bounce off of the 300 month SMA.
The mega bear scenario is the 600month SMA as the 500 month SMA is basically so close to the 400 as to not matter. We would target this if the equities market as a whole had a bounce and set a lower high, showing that it was just partway through a ABC correction.
How is all of this going to happen? The everything Bubble, of course. Some of the countries that will be hit the hardest, and are being hit the hardest, are estimated to be some of the countries with the highest holdings in personal precious metals. Germany has had negative interest rates for long time, India's central bank is trying to step up in a big way to keep the economy afloat, when these countries start to dump their stores of value, which they may have bought on credit, its going to get bad. If this corona virus turns out to be as bad as people are suspecting, then India, with its poor overall hygiene standards, is going to be hit with another punch in the gut, and people are going to be very likely frivolously spending golden inheritances.
The red oval and arrow show the classic bullish divergence that set up the move from ~$14 to ~19.50. That divergence has performed and we cannot reasonably expect any furhter performance as the price action is now about to trigger the bearish divergence seen in the technical double top on the OBV shown with the purple arrow but the downward canted oval on the price action. The descending triangle should be clear.
The OBV 100 EMA shows that on a very high time frame that there was bearish divergent volume this uptrend. The horizon helps highlight how this lower OBV EMA high is showing a decrease in buying power and is exhaustion move with not enough buyers coming in to support the move.
In order to keep this target setting simple, and because I have done it several times, I have the common fib extension ratios from the peak of the descending triangle to this second high.
The lighter blue SMA is the 300w SMA will be very strong support. If you look at the 3 month or quarterly bollinger bands that is the lower limit of the 3rd standard deviation band. It makes a lot of sense to buy that aggressively looking for a bounce off of Bollinger Band/SMA/Fib Ratio support. This may cause a decade long consolidation which will be frustrating for those hoping for the next bull run. I sill think a run from this dip to $35 is possible, but it will take some patience.
Most of fib extensions form a thicket around the 400 Month Simple moving average in the darker blue. This would be a target for a failed bounce off of the 300 month SMA.
The mega bear scenario is the 600month SMA as the 500 month SMA is basically so close to the 400 as to not matter. We would target this if the equities market as a whole had a bounce and set a lower high, showing that it was just partway through a ABC correction.
How is all of this going to happen? The everything Bubble, of course. Some of the countries that will be hit the hardest, and are being hit the hardest, are estimated to be some of the countries with the highest holdings in personal precious metals. Germany has had negative interest rates for long time, India's central bank is trying to step up in a big way to keep the economy afloat, when these countries start to dump their stores of value, which they may have bought on credit, its going to get bad. If this corona virus turns out to be as bad as people are suspecting, then India, with its poor overall hygiene standards, is going to be hit with another punch in the gut, and people are going to be very likely frivolously spending golden inheritances.
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