Silver: End of Correction soon - then boom?

2022年5月13日

A high-time-frame analysis of Silver.

Observations

• drawn out correction since impulsive wave 1 in summer 2020 which unfolds in an ABC-manner
  
• corrective patterns flat and running flat had already been invalidated by the higher high of the b wave
  
• we are currently in wave 3 of wave 5 of the c leg
  

Thesis

• together with a rebounding equities market Silver will push upwards a little bit to the 22 USD region. completing wave 4 of 5 of C
  
• then a sharp drop will follow that either stops below 20 USD or at the golden pocket at the 17 USD area
  
• this could be followed by an impulsive upmove which would be wave 3 and could carry us to 35 USD which aligns nicely with resistance area
  

Supporting facts for thesis

• Seasonality: May is a weak month for silver; June a strong one
  
• slight overhang of longs in the COT report; they might get flushed first
  

This thesis is invalidated if we break 17 USD!

+++

My count is somewhat high-time frame but check out this idea of hypersonic 78 who looked at decades. It aligns with my idea well.

2022年5月27日

ノート

Silver has reached a pivotal area and just printed a 4h-reversal candle (hammer). If price nukes from here, wave 5 of y has started.

2022年8月2日

ノート

Silver is hovering above the Golden Zone. The recent run up looks like a C up of wave 4. I expect Silver to reach the Zone eventually.