Triggers: 4h-close below 235 and/or < 230.9 (Don20-Mid) with RSI

What does it mean now
1. The structure is "bullish but thin": the price is at the tops of Donchian/BB/Keltner, ADX ~33 and CMF>0 confirm the trend, but the MACD-hist −0.11, a series of bearish divergences (RSI/MFI/OBV), and a low OI (z −1.34) indicate that the momentum is going without a noticeable set of futures positions.
2. Squeeze ON ~13 bars: the market is compressed, and an impulse exit is likely.
3. Profile: a strong HVN core of 202-208 (POC ~207.9), we are trading above, VAH ~239.7 near the current price → above the supply zone.
4. Premium to VWAP ~+1.1σ: there is upward space, but it is already "not cheap" relative to average demand.

⸻

Key levels
• Resistance: 237.75 (Donch-High 20/55) → 239.66 (VAH) → 244.9–245.0 (LVN-thin zone).
• Supports: 235–231 (BB/EMA20/Don20-Mid 230.9) → 224.0–221.2 (BB-/KC-low) → 207.9 (POC) → 202–208 HVN-cluster → 197.9 (Don55-Low zone of the upper range).

⸻

Scenarios and triggers (not financial advice)

A) Basic — rotation/balance above the averages with a check of 230–232
Why basic: Squeeze ON, MACD goes out, divergences are bearish, and OI is low — more often, the market "chews" the level before choosing a direction.
• Triggers: 4h-close below 235 and/or < 230.9 (Don20-Mid) with RSI<55 / MACD weakening, without OI growth.
• Targets: 231 → 224–221 (edge of bands/channels). Deeper — retest 207–208 (POC/HVN) if the impulse fades.
• Invalidator: quick return and fixing > 237.8.

B) Pulse break-up (Squeeze-release)
• Trigger: 4h-closing > 237.8 + buffer ≈ +0.1·ATR ≈ +0.45$ (i.e. > 238.25) and holding above 237.8 at CMF≥0, OBV↑, preferably OI↑.
• Targets: 239.7 (VAH) → 244.9–245.0 (LVN) → with good OI, expand to higher levels.
• Invalidator: return < 235 on increased volume.

C) Bearish reversal from VAH/Don-High
• Trigger: rebound from 237.8–239.7 with 4h-close < 235, RSI↓, MACD-hist in the red, OI↑ on the red candle (inflow of shorts).
• Targets: 230.9 → 224–221 → 207–208.
• Invalidator: re-capture > 238.3 with OI not falling.

⸻

Tactics (example of logic)
• Pullback long (conservative): monitor demand in 231–232 (candle reaction + CMF≥0, OBV↑). Stop — below 224-221, targets — 235 → 237.8 → 239.7.
• Impulse long (aggressive): after 4h-close > 238.25 (breakdown with buffer), partial fixation at 239.7, trail to 244.9–245.0.
• Countertrend short: only with a clear rejection in the 237.8–239.7 zone + confirmation (RSI/MFI down, MACD-histo < 0, OI↑). Targets are 235 → 230.9 → 224–221; stop is at ~240–241.

⸻

Briefly: what to expect
• Base: consolidation/rotation in 231–238 with a risk of moving to 224–221 until momentum and OI confirm a breakout.
• If we gain a foothold above 238.25, we can expect an upward move to 239.7 → 244.9–245.0.
• If we lose 230.9, we can expect an upward move to 224–221, and if we are weak, we can expect an upward move to 207–208.