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SPCE Ascending Triangle long

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SPCE bounced off of a sloping support at the bottom of ascending triangle bullish continuation pattern (bull pennant), looking like it might be a good entry for long trade as we are currently still sitting close to that suppot. Based on historical performance rally can be expected up until the day of scheduled test flight (February 13th). Fibonacci Retracement (December swing high and January swing low) used to map out support/resistance levels above ATH, upper $80 target coincides with conservatively measured height of the triangle and lines up with psychological resistance at multiple of 10. Price could rally again on successful test flight and leading up to earnings on February 25th with next resistance expected at $100. Stock is currently in strong bullish uptrend so the momentum is there. Cautious traders might want to wait until triangle breaks out o the upside (and possibly gets backtested for support).

ノート

Triple Hidden Bullish Divergence (higher lows in price and lower lows on MACD) might be developing on 4h timescale. Triangle holding nicely so far and I am hoping for a breakout before weekend.

ノート

Triangle broke down today amid wider market correction and UBS analyst report which upgraded price target to $52 (up from $35) but downgraded rating from buy to hold.

I am not concerned with this development because price made yet another higher low today and as mentioned in my previous update we now have a massive Hidden Bullish Divergence forming on both oscillators (RSI and MACD) on the 4h chart. As long as the price doesn't go below $47.5 and pivots, impending price action to the upside (bullish trend continuation) is being implied. I remain hopeful that it might play out before the weekend but otherwise it would be a great technical setup for a massive leg up on successful test flight news that we will hopefully have by Monday.

ノート

Technical indicators aside I'm afraid that the flight-cancelation news today killed any hopes of the rally continuing from here, trade pretty much invalidated.

ノート

Even though the trade didn't play out I'm bullish on SPCE again. The dragonfly doji painted on the daily candle today is beautiful and chart starts to look like a potential inverted ascending scallop. In my opinion it's looking surprisingly strong right now but still not enough edge on potential entry for me to post a new idea so I thought it might be worth to update this one instead just to keep track of things.