Energy poised to outperform as sector roatates.

2023年11月18日

Energy SPX comparison in looking oversold on the RSI.
Whilst SPN has underperformed sectors rotation is poised to have energy take a bounce. Whilst the potential of a long term double bottom may be on the cards the SPN. SPN has recently made a short term double bottom within its sector. So the chances of energy price moving up as a comparison only because its price decreases less, is a less likely factor and more likely because the SPN sector will increase.
Whilst printing one of the largest Dragon fly DOGI along side a bullish cross on the MACD. However the RSI is not oversold so it seems a if the sector is trading within a range.

Mean while a potential broadening wedge might be at play in the index which may just mean a potential retests of its upper trendline as a double bottom on such a wide timeframe generally means a shift in the sector which what I believe may surpass is EMA and .5 FIB retracement.

Descending broadening wedges in forex according to an article have a higher possibility to break to the downside whilst trending down, but are generally harder to trade due to there not being a significant difference and to what one would expect from a narrowing wedge.

With the talk of Inflation to reside then and cost of energy lying at the sole cost of any and every business' a breakout to the upside might be more concerning. The looming recession ahead and a expected deflationary period it would be expected to break to the downside.
Whilst the sector may be looking bullish for the shorter term a chart that may also argue the short term move up ending with a bearish breakout would be a near picture perfect ascending triangle development on the wider timeframe.

Typically these formations are expected to break to the upside on shorter time frame. However, these patterns forming on a wider timeframe generally breakout to the downside. Due to it being a display of trend exhaustion.

Although nothing is certain and currently inflation is finding support withing its 3 month moving a expected move down might be enough to bring inflation through its support and a repeat of 1970's to 1980's stagflation may just be avoided.

Although, stagflation is called that for a reason as it is a abbreviated form for stagnant inflation so the potential for it to remain above the moving averages is a possibility. Which could mean the move down may be short lived.

Here is another chart that can be interpreted a couple of ways may be more concerning for the bulls is a comparison between energy and SPX and is suggesting the possibility of it declining more substantially then the S&P 500.

2023年12月15日

ノート

The custom indicator measures the difference between a set moving average and its price over a period of time. As inflation came down its slower moving average is declining but as the short period setting of inflation price action found support. This display represents a separation of averages but not yet a cross.
At the moment it is suggest along with support on the RSI and near on support from the stochastic that a chance of inflation finding support within its moving averages is a likely scenario.

2023年12月15日

ノート

SPN/SPX finding support on the next point of confluence and displaying divergence on the stochastic and is now crossing up on the RSI
Whilst the SPN index has currently Broken out of it long term horizontal descending triangle and is currently will retesting resistance on the shorter timeframe. Is this a false breakout.

whilst using the same trend lines on the 2 week timeframe hanging man doji have shown that the wick has sold back up into the trendline. Long lower wick suggesting buying pressure is being applied. Arguable how these trend lines would be drawn but until a clear confirmation of a rejection and a breakout is confirmed it is still uncertain.