New Program Relooks at Market Top

2023年7月22日

With our newest program online, we will relook at the market top from an hourly data viewpoint based on historical wave relationships. The first set will determine the expected behavior of Intermediate wave 5, and then Primary wave C will be examined. Current belief is the market is in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave B, Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 5. The shorthand reference for this is the alphanumeric of the waves combined—152BC5.
INTERMEDIATE WAVE 5
Intermediate wave 1 was 175 hours and a gain of 360.62 points from the market’s most recent low in mid-March 2023. Intermediate wave 2 then lost 121.20 points in 86 trading hours before Intermediate wave 3 gained 400.19 points in 208 hours. Finally, Intermediate wave 4 lost 120.39 points in 41 trading hours setting up Intermediate wave 5 to complete the cycle with upward movement toward, but likely short of, the all-time market high of 4818 from January 2022.
Based on historical wave data for similar waves ending in 52BC5, Intermediate wave 5 is broken up into fourths, or quartiles of possible movement. The first quartile of data suggest wave 5 could extend beyond the movement of Intermediate wave 3’s top (end point) by 106.33% while the data’s median suggests 133.605% and the third quartile is at 152.82%. The maximum recorded extension thus far was 153%. This would indicate the market will top below 4660. Still based on the same dataset, the most amount of models indicate the end of Intermediate wave 5 could occur within 86 trading hours. Second most agreement is a tie among many lengths, but the models are not strong enough. These levels are 96, 104, 123, or 624 hours. As of Friday’s close on July 21, 2023, Intermediate wave 5 is 123 hours long IF it is still ongoing. The current high was on July 19 at 105 trading hours.
Based on waves ending in 2BC5, the quartile extension levels are 110.65%, 129.39%, & 152.82% with the maximum extension at 192.58% (nearly double the length of wave 3’s movement). The models for duration agree the strongest on a length of 41 trading hours. Second most agreement is 86 while third is a tie at 52, 175, and 208. Fourth agreement is 26 hours and fifth is 88 hours. Most of these lengths have already been surpassed with the exception of 175 and 208.
Based on waves ending in BC5, the quartile extension levels are 113.62%, 127.15%, & 147.45%. Strongest model forecast for length remains at 41 hours, with second most agreement at 208 hours, third at 52 hours, fourth at 246 hours, and fifth at 86 hours.
This analysis could also indicate the market topped on July 19, 2023 as it was near two historical reversal levels AND 105 trading hours long which was next to a modelled point. If the top is not in, it could occur on or before August 2
PRIMARY WAVE C
Primary wave A began when the market bottomed in mid-October 2022 and gained 608.93 points in 235 trading hours. Primary wave B then lost 291.65 points by the time it bottomed 476 trading hours later. Based on waves ending in 152BC, the quartile extension for Primary wave C are 126.53%, 152.48%, & 161.79% with the maximum at 181.32% (these lines are the right-most scaled on the above chart). The models only agree on one length which is 476 hours, which is the same as Primary wave B which means it may not occur in this instance. Some B waves are a 1:1 length of the following C waves, however, that is generally observed on a much smaller scale which is not the case here. I will wait for the next broader dataset to determine possible lengths. So far all quartiles have been surpassed and the prior maximum observed is at 4595.69. The current market high is at 615 hours, and the market close at trading hour 633 on Friday.
Based on waves ending in 52BC, the quartile extension levels are 125.13%, 149.765%, & 166.55%. The models once again agree the most at 476 hours, with second most agreement scattered at 235, 238, & 952 hours. Although not strongly endorsed, the next duration that is projected and is yet to occur is 705 trading hours which is roughly August 7, 2023.
CONCLUSION
There is a chance the market top has already occurred on July 19, 2023. If it has not occurred, it could occur as early as this coming week. The Federal Reserve has another rate decision on Wednesday and has a history of making for a volatile aftermath. Most of the data in this analysis is pointing to a market top below 4638.36 and possibly below 4596. The duration models do not help as much on an hourly scale. If the values are correct, the market may not top for another whole week. Regardless of the results, this new program should help determine many of the steps down in the pending bear market finale likely rolling through the next trading year.