SPX weekend update

2022年7月31日

Im slightly short as of Fri close, not planning to hold for long, looking at other day to get in with swings.

Notes from the chart:

4308.5SPX is the main resistances now (must hold for continuation lower)
Resistance - 4158.50, 4160.2, 4177.60, 4168.80 (Maj) SPX

- Low target for tomorrow 4052, 4027 and Main support 4012SPX - Buy if seen in am, don't buy if we see higher first
- 3910 and 3943 are the maj support zone now

Buy zone for tomorrow with stops!
- 4012, 4027.50SPX
- 4000 must hold on any try or it falls apart and will get 50MA tested

Short
- 4154-60SPX, no short above 4175, going to 4216-25

- Low (intraday) was on Jun 17th;
- No current long position, only short

Old pathway still can be in play:
- rally for a week or 2 back to 4150-4205 SPX (we are here now), retest of 3890SPX or 3830by Mid Aug and then main target of 4330+ and possible 4425+ summer time
- Ideally extend to 4425SPX (4300 main resistance on the way up) summer rally target - 110MA

After revising my chart, there is a high chance we are in a 5 wave down pathway with 4 being almost over.

Larger ABC pathway down into Sep/Oct low as being just an A wave, B wave up to Jan high and C down to Apr low

Potential 5 waves down is forming! Next mid Jun low can be lower low! Came as a main low and possible 5 wave down is over and we are in a B wave up


Additional to add:

We did hit 110MA on Fri high and retraced, that target alone can be enough for this move and the price doesn't have to test 200MA in case of a serious bear trend.

There are 2 downtrend channels, either of them can be in play, those are visual on my chart.

- We have a high volatility going into the 4th Aug
- As well as from the 8th of Aug to 15th.

I'm expecting at least a temp high on the 1st or the 3rd, if was not hit on Fri .
Low mid month and another advance into the week of 29th on neg div .
After that expect a huge move down and my targets as of now are 3430 and 3455. There is a Fib fan confluence at the same levels
I really don't want to see lower, as if that happens,then we could be in a 5 waves structure into Q1 of 2023 instead of ABC move down.