Bearish ABCD

2023年12月15日

Bearish ABCD
If my guess is right, Sp500 is forming a bearish ABCD in the monthly.

What does that mean?

That Sp500 will peak in Summer 2024 around 5300 pips and will make a new ATH in less than one month.

Justication

Looking at its monthly chart (image attached).

1. Sp500 is forming the second linear acceleration in a mini bearish rising wedge. (line CD 1.43 Fib extension). Its first linear acceleration was from March 2020 to December 2021 (line AB 0.52 Fib extension). This is called Bearish ABCD

2. Right now Sp500 has reached its weekly acceleration line with support at 4674pips. As far as this price action is not broken Sp500 is extremely bullish and once 4733 pips is broken it will be easy to make a new ATH (4733 is a resistance form by the dash line inside the mini bearish rising wedge that I have drawn).

3. Sp500 is inside a massive bearish rising wedge (red line) that collides in July 2024 with its mini bearish rising wedge (black line).

4. In December 2022 I mentioned that Sp500 will face a MOASS before a collapse. My guess is that the real MOASS started the 27th October 2023 and will probably last 8 months.

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A bearish ABCD follows a retracement. We can have a shallow retracement to 3371 pips or a deep retracement to 2126 pips.
It is very interesting to observe that that price action (2126 pips) is the trendline that join the peak in the great depression of 1929 and the top in the bubble.com (2000) (blue channel in the image attached).
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To sum up:
Sp500 is inside a mini bearish rising wedge, similar the one that formed after Covid-19 crash. If it continue following the same pattern in the beginning of January 2024 and once 4733 is broken out a new ATH will probably come.
Sp500 chart in the monthly, show a bullish momentum until Q2 or July 2024, moment where Sp500 will probably peak. Sp500 between January 2024 to July 2024 has a target between 4950 to 5300 pips.

My guess is that Sp500 will peak between January and July 2024 in those price action.
If this ABCD bearish is correct and once Sp500 takes out its massive bearish wedge we will see the real impact of this economic situation during the next two years.