Another breakout above historical highs

2017年1月25日

Yesterday's session produced yet another intraday breakout above the previous historical high. This market remains very strong and refuses to go down, notwithstanding a rich valuation and still supported by abundant central bank liquidity. We have had a noticeable "time consolidation" for the past month, where the index did nothing since December 20. This new breakout remains valid as long as we stay above 2260.

Please also note the meaningfulness of the move as it appears coordinated:
- USD down
- Gold down
- Volatility down
- NASDAQ and SPX breaking out at the same time
- RUSSELL 2000 turning back into the uptrend and providing breadth
- Supportive corporate news flow:
* Good corporate earnings
* Abundant M&A
* Share buybacks

It seems all systems are in the green for the US Equity market. DJIA is yet to break above 20,000. If this were to happen, the breaking of this significant psychological level would lend further credence to the current uptrend.

2017年1月25日

ノート

Psychological level on the DJIA has been broken!
This now looks like a beautiful, coordinated move.
All major US indices breaking out at the same time.
Watch the DJIA close > 20,000 for confirmation.
Don't fight the trend, this market wants to go up more, it seems...

2017年1月26日

ノート

The DJIA closed yesterday above the historical high and 20,000 psychological level. This confirms the strength of the up move. Seems this market wants/should go higher, even though the SPX is now above the target of 2296.84 derived from the preceding, rounding top breakout. Concerns remain about the high valuations, and this divergence will have to be fixed at some point, but when? In the meantime, the trend is your friend.

2017年1月31日

ノート

Some consolidation yesterday for this index, while DJIA closed below critical 20,000. However, SPX is still in breakout/uptrend mode, but only just. It sits just above the high-flag it recently broke out of. It also sits just above the MA20. The clearly visible hammer formed yesterday is potentially a bullish reversal indicator which works best in the current condition (uptrend breakout in a bull market). So yesterday's downward adjustment could be short lived, but who knows? The market remains overpriced and bound for consolidation, so caution is still required.