SPX ABC may still retest 4115/4k;June & Nov 2022 may see rallies

2022年4月29日

Update on my 2018-2020 Meagaphone fractal thesis. (A recent overshoot below fractal & channel may just be a beartrap)
The bullish scenario:
SPX recently overshoot below an upchannel & is now making a V recovery to reclaim it. If it rallies above the 4400(green dma50) to 4500(red dma200) zone & holds it, then the 22Apr overshoot is just a beartrap.
SPX will continue inside the channel going up as in the yellow fractal. SPX may reach 5345 early 4Q2022. Ultimate destination of 6000 for final wave 5 in 2023 is possible before a potential recession kicks in.
The bearish scenario:
SPX fails to reclaim dma50 & dma200 & is rejected back down to 4k (17% is historical ave correction). This will coincide with the lower side of the green megaphone fractal for retest & bounce. Worst scenario is dropping to 3800 (a 21% drop Brink of bear market). This will be the final capitulation needed to create maximum fear & pessimism before my adjusted ABC finally completes & a new 5-wave EW cycle begins. This will start the BIG WAVE 5 to potentially reach 5345 in 3Q2022 & then 6000 in 2023 before a potential multi-year recession.
Watch out for potential ABC bottom reversal or wave 1 rally in Jun. A wave 2 correction in 3Q2022 & then a wave 3 rally in Nov or 4Q2022.
Monitor carefully if SPX re-enters channel or will be rejected in the next few days. If so then its next target will be the green dma50 & the red dma200.
Long term bullish. Short & medium term bearish
Not trading advice