SPX tricks and traps the_sunshipによるSP:SPXの分析

SPX tricks and traps

All in the video, I believe we've topped today and we're going to make our way down to the 4050 level. If I'm wrong I will certainly update the idea. While higher highs are still possible, I lay out my reasoning why this is more likely a top than not.

Good luck!

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good morning, so far the top has held but we're not gapping down hard just yet. Housing numbers are at 830, let's see what happens after that. The last high could be considered a "tradable top". Still support betweem 4320-4310, under that it gets more interesting

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morning chart - triangle consolidation tested with the 830 numbers.

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breaking down.

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looks like they will attempt a rally at the start of the day - possible opening

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they likely test the bear flag and the triangle, waiting....

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ok, maybe that's it, we'll see

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on spy - buyers may try to save it here, important support level

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SOXX down 2 percent, nice break this should lead tech to outperform to the downside

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back to the morning triangle. If they get over 4370 it's another bear trap and we have a repeat of yesterday

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ok hard rejection. If that gets taken out it would be horrible for bears.

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ok that's a break - finally.

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this diagonal trendline structure on spx cash looks important, so if it gets there, perhaps a decent (tradable for a day or two) bounce will occur.

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a larger structure on SPX cash I'm watching.

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to resistance - should be 4 with 5 coming.

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qqq needs to break 363, then that 364 level will become heavy resistance. makes sense the bought it here.

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futures chart - retested the blue trendline and rejected

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if tech breaks this level they will likely struggle and try to regain it. Even if it looks terrible by end of the day, this level will most likely get retested

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QQQ lost support. They WILL come back to this level at some point for sure.

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put/call still relatively tame, bears are gun shy because they've been burned so often

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it's possible that's it for this leg. a bounce to retrace tomorrow at 8:30 wouldn't surprise me. I took some profits and waiting for tomorrow's open - have a good evening.

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good morning, looks like we'll have one more wave down today and then a relief rally. It's possible the 830 numbers tank it and after open it rallies, or - the 830 numbers rally it some more and then it reverses. Either way I think it's a sell the rip kind of day if we get one.

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on SPX cash this idea is still possible if futures is putting in a cup and handle bottom. This would reset the RSI enough for a bigger drop next week.

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potential cup and handle on futures points to a target of 4350.

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if it looks bearish at open, watch for a reversal, RSI on mid time frames could use a reset, so higher for at least some of today is looking more likely than not.

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this is the plan for today, if it doesn't work I will update.

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waiting for 4300 area, it may not get there, but it's the logical support.

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still waiting, looks right so far.

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should still have one more low if it's correct

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target nearby, collecting some longs slowly here.

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target reached, if I'm right it reverses soon, if not it keeps going to break the low. Stops tight. Good luck!

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needs to get over 4305 and hold, otherwise it's going lower.

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on another chart, I have this. If they make another low, it wouldn't surprise me. Needs to get over the blue trendline and hold to be bullish.

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they are really playing games here. Structural trend on SPX holds so far. I little lower is not a problem to take out longs.

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powell speech at 12pm marketwatch.com/livecoverage/fed-s-powell-live-coverage-of-pivotal-speech-as-bond-yields-surge

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ok false breakdown, but it needs follow through. I'll update later, I have to go out

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nice pop, but now it either drops or it's a C of B with C up to end the day.

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15 minute bull divergence, may not mean anything, but this still is possible. Careful on both sides.

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looks like a bear trap - more traps and tricks.

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should keep going to the gap on spy around 435ish...

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ok last chart, today - 434 is likely today - MAYBE 435 but that gap may not get filled. To me this is another bull trap regardless of how high it ends the day. We're still in sell the rips mode as far as I can see....

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the problems is SPX is being held back by tech. Tech can't get over 364 - the level I mentioned yesterday. So even though typically a C wave will extend past A, in this unusual case the C wave on SPX may actually be shorter. Hard to say but basically without Tech moving up, the market will not move up. Target on Tech is still 355.

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note SPX the C wave may actually be done here, unusual to say the least and quite bearish if true.

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last post on this chart, I will make another chart tonight or tomorrow morning. This channel on SPX is still in play for the target. Timing may be late October for a low. I don't expect much more bouncing. Sell the rips continues into Halloween I think.