When I become too convinced of something, I try to look at things with a different angle and I challenge my conclusions.
I am convinced that the market can't go up vertically here.
I am making the assumption that the market will then correct and come back stronger.
Looking at this chart i realized that there has been periods in the past where SP500 has climbed steadily but slowly for periods of over 30 months without major corrections.
Since we are only in month 18 of this process, maybe the market will climb very slowly for another 5/12 months.
I think this is the risk here when considering upside without correction.
Note about PE:
- They have historically been between 5 and 20.
- There were a few spikes above 20: 1929, 1992 (growth prospect), 2000 (bubble),
To massively increase PE, I guess you need to have structural changes going on that make investors believe there will be higher earnings in a close future (I guess this is what happened in 1995) or/and the spirit of making moneys on longs needs to become so entrenched that many new comers join the market.
I am not sure we have great growth prospect here.
The argument I often hear is "liquidity" which is a sufficient explanation to inflate prices but will not last forever.
All together:
- I think the market is going to climb another 7/10% until year.
- This move cannot be vertical here.
- it is going to either climb very slowly without correction or it is going to correct 10% soon and come back strong.