TLT: Mother of all short squeeze

2018年5月27日

Every hedge funds and their wife, dog, cats, kids are short bonds.
Everyone is trapped in the narrative of the FED's rate hike.

The bus of short 10 year treasury is full. Its time for a train derail.



In a risk-off environment, do you think the FED will ever hike rates further?
Adding another level of uncertainly is the cancellation of the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore. Including the recent crash of Italian bonds, EU drama yet again (potentially 5x bigger than Greece)
The only place funds can reposition themselves are the US dollar, and US debt/treasury. Uncle Sam.

The VIX is currently near lows once again. ~13


It is time to counter-trade that, and reap the rewards of the short covering along 117 support line. You have only 2% to risk.

Just buy August 2018 - June 2019 call/ bull spread and close your chart. No stop loss.
If it doesnt get there, you lose your investments. If it does, you get back 5x~20x your investments.
All conditions are perfect.

2018年5月29日

ノート

Closed 1/4 of the call spread position. Locked in 200% gains, just in case ECB decides to step in.

Letting other 3/4 ride.


TLT

2018年6月4日

ノート

Next Fed Meeting will be on 12-13 June ... might be adding some position a day before. we'll see

2018年6月7日

ノート

Some capitulation intra-day... 5 more days to FED meeting ;)
let's squeeze those pesky bond bears.