WHAT IS DRIVING INFLATION FEARS?

2021年3月17日

Commodities!

Here is a chart showing TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) vs TLT long-dated bonds.
As inflation fears rise TIPS outperforms TLT . (Color RED)

As the CRB commodity Index rose (Color Blue) TIPS outperformed TLT .

Now that the CRB INDEX is hitting 12-year resistance area it is likely to at least pause along with
inflation fears. If the CRB breaks out here we could see a wave of selling in bonds pushing yields
even higher. At some point, the FED will have to act with operation "TWIST" (buying more long
dated bonds rather than short) or increase QE .

From a social perspective expect people to start bitching about Food inflation and supermarkets.
Again IF the CRB breakout.

2021年3月24日

ノート

Note how CRB and TIP/TLT pulled back simultaneously. Continue to keep an eye on this chart as it will signal where the 10 year is likely headed.

2021年3月30日

ノート

As expected Commodities (CRB) are pulling back against resistance.
Gold is not looking good either.

2021年4月23日

ノート

Someone is wrong (bonds or commodity traders)

2021年5月26日

ノート

Keep an eye on this going forward.