Teslaロング
TSLA Long
アップデート済
This past week, lot of retail traders were taking profits out of energy & commodity options/swing trades and plowing the money back into their favorite meme stocks. TSLA is seeing the same basic chart action as ARKK & MEME (the meme stock ETF). (chart).
Retail traders, acting as a hive of investors, take profits out of basically every trade that makes sense due to market fundamentals and short the hell out of that sector as they leave, no matter what the outlook is for the sector going forward. Then they plow the money into the same overvalued set of stocks.
You can see this effect in late Fall 2021 as commodities & energy sectors got plundered and then each time that happens the retail investor favorites, depicted in the chart by the etfs ARKK, MEME & MGK (mega cap growth), shoot up. You can see how the commodities ETFs (particularly energy) chart is the mirror image of the meme stocks. What's so interesting about the chart is that the whole time these mirroring trades occur, there's every reason for commodity stocks to rise (limited production & increasing demand) and no reason for the wildly overvalued meme stocks to rise more. Yet people keep taking money out of commodities and putting them into meme stocks anyways. This irrational pattern has existed all through 2021 and continues through 2022 so far.
The effect of irrational retail traders piling into the same overvalued stocks and holding them no matter what is what has been driving increases in these overvalued stocks for at least the last year (and maybe two years). It's becoming more and more volatile.
In my opinion, it's probably not over yet, and this is a bear market rally in Cathie Woods/mega cap growth stocks that will peter out once retail traders are done selling out of commodities & oil & putting their gains back into their favorite stocks. Then these stock will resume falling and commodities will start to climb again.
But I may be wrong, because at some point higher interest rates will be fully priced in and the overpriced growth stocks will bottom out, which can happen at any time. Also, at some point commodity & oil stocks are going to be fully valued and the companies will be adequately capitalized, even after retail traders & shorts are trying to drive them down irrationally.
The other thing that happened to lift broad indexes this past week was options expiring and shorts covering, which also lifted stocks because everything was heavily shorted.
tldr; I could see shorting TSLA because this is probably a bear market rally, but then again the bear market in growth stocks can reverse at any time and that time may be near at hand.
now going long on tsla.
Retail traders, acting as a hive of investors, take profits out of basically every trade that makes sense due to market fundamentals and short the hell out of that sector as they leave, no matter what the outlook is for the sector going forward. Then they plow the money into the same overvalued set of stocks.
You can see this effect in late Fall 2021 as commodities & energy sectors got plundered and then each time that happens the retail investor favorites, depicted in the chart by the etfs ARKK, MEME & MGK (mega cap growth), shoot up. You can see how the commodities ETFs (particularly energy) chart is the mirror image of the meme stocks. What's so interesting about the chart is that the whole time these mirroring trades occur, there's every reason for commodity stocks to rise (limited production & increasing demand) and no reason for the wildly overvalued meme stocks to rise more. Yet people keep taking money out of commodities and putting them into meme stocks anyways. This irrational pattern has existed all through 2021 and continues through 2022 so far.
The effect of irrational retail traders piling into the same overvalued stocks and holding them no matter what is what has been driving increases in these overvalued stocks for at least the last year (and maybe two years). It's becoming more and more volatile.
In my opinion, it's probably not over yet, and this is a bear market rally in Cathie Woods/mega cap growth stocks that will peter out once retail traders are done selling out of commodities & oil & putting their gains back into their favorite stocks. Then these stock will resume falling and commodities will start to climb again.
But I may be wrong, because at some point higher interest rates will be fully priced in and the overpriced growth stocks will bottom out, which can happen at any time. Also, at some point commodity & oil stocks are going to be fully valued and the companies will be adequately capitalized, even after retail traders & shorts are trying to drive them down irrationally.
The other thing that happened to lift broad indexes this past week was options expiring and shorts covering, which also lifted stocks because everything was heavily shorted.
tldr; I could see shorting TSLA because this is probably a bear market rally, but then again the bear market in growth stocks can reverse at any time and that time may be near at hand.
now going long on tsla.
ノート
right on the money....手動でトレードを終了しました
ALL OUT- PROFITS MADE- NOW SHORTING. BUY BACK ORDER AT 600.
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