TSLA (Tesla) – Elliott Wave Impulse Ending + Fibonacci Correctio

5月31日

Tesla completed a textbook 5-wave Elliott impulse to the upside, topping out near the 1.0 Fibonacci extension ($367.71). We're now seeing signs of a corrective wave likely targeting the golden zone near $294.89 — aligning with SPY/NVDA retracements.

🔍 Elliott Wave Count:
Wave (1): Impulse from breakout

Wave (2): Shallow pullback

Wave (3): Extended rally

Wave (4): Minor correction

Wave (5): Final push – now failing

📉 Fibonacci Zones:
Current Price: $346.46

Wave 5 Completion: ~$367

Retracement Target: $294.89 (0.5–0.618 confluence)

Extension Target: $513.06 (2.0 extension from wave base)

📊 Probabilistic Outlook
🔻 Correction to $294.89 = 70% probability (based on wave structure + Fib retracement logic)

🔼 Rally to $513+ = 60% probability if support holds and market conditions remain risk-on

🌐 Macro Alignment (May 31, 2025)
🔄 Market rotation into value → temporary tech cooldown

📉 NVDA false breakout and SPY retracement suggest broader pullback

🧠 Tesla is a beta-multiplier to NASDAQ; expect correlation

🧭 Trade Plan:
Buy Zone: $294.89 (watch for confirmation + volume spike)

Sell Target: $513.06 (Fib 2.0 extension)

Stop: Below $278 (structure invalidation)

🧠 Pro Insight:
This is a Wave 2/4 retracement zone where institutions often reload. The broader macro pullback may present one of the last deep dips before a Q3 breakout.

#TSLA #ElliottWave #FibLevels #TechStocks #SmartMoney #SwingTrade #NASDAQ #WaverVanir #TradingView

5月31日

ノート

Tactical view