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Abbau der FED Bilanz: Zinsanstieg in den USA

アップデート済

Seit der Finanzkrise im Jahr 2008 ist die Bilanz der US Notenbank durch massive Anleihekäufe (QE) auf 4,5 Billionen US Dollar angestiegen. Was die wenigsten Trader wissen:

Auslaufende Staatsanleihen werden weiterhin durch Käufe neuer Anleihen ersetzt.

Obwohl die Finanzkrise seit Jahren vorbei ist, kauft die Fed weiterhin US-Anleihen. Dies ändert sich jetzt. Auslaufende US-Staatsanleihen werden nicht mehr vollständig ersetzt. Die Fed reduziert diese Käufe zunächt um 10 Mrd. Dollar pro Monat. Ende 2018 werden die Käufe um 50 Mrd. Dollar pro Monat zurückgefahren. Zeitgleich sollte die EZB ihre Käufe Ende 2018 ebenfalls deutlich reduzieren. Beide Faktoren zusammen sollten die Renditen der US-Staatssanleihen weiter steigen lassen.

Gefahr für die Aktienmärkte sind Renditen oberhalb von 3,5%. Aktien sind dann als renditebringende Anlageform nicht mehr "alternativlos".

Die Renditen 10jähriger US-Staatsanleihen liegen aktuell bei 2.34%. Jeder weitere deutliche Anstieg sollte ab jetzt das Aufwärtsmomentum an den Aktienmärkten bremsen.

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Trading Idee zur selben Thematik veröffentlicht auf TradingView.com (US Version). Chart bitte anklicken, um Kommentare und neue Daten zu laden.

US10YR: Drop Below 100 Likely Negative For Stockmarkets Globally

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Fed divide on inflation intensified at September policy meeting
investing.com/news/economy-news/fed-split-on-inflation-intensified-at-september-policy-meeting-minutes-540171

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: FED IS SUPPORTING MORE UPSIDEMOMENTUM FOR GLOBAL STOCKMARKETS
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Bullard: Fed 'should defend' inflation target or risk losing credibility
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QUOTE:
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Fed needs to mount a clear defense of its 2 percent inflation target and stop raising rates until the pace of price increases strengthens, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday.
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Fed needs to mount a clear defense of its 2 percent inflation target and stop raising rates until the pace of price increases strengthens, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday.
The central bank risks losing credibility, and perhaps triggering a recession, if it continues to insist on "normalization" without better evidence that prices are firming, he said in an interview with Reuters.
"If you are going to have an inflation target you should defend it. If you say you are going to hit the inflation target then you should try to hit it and maintain credibility," Bullard said in an interview with Reuters."
investing.com/news/economy-news/bullard-fed-should-defend-inflation-target-risks-losing-credibility-otherwise-540661

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: US TAX REFORM

Die angekündigten Steuersenkungen in den USA werden nach dem aktuellen Stand der Dinge die Staatsverschuldung erhöhen. Für US-Staatsanleinn ist dies langfristig negativ.

If Senate can pass budget resolution, tax cuts have strong chance: Zoellick
marketwatch.com/story/if-senate-can-pass-budget-resolution-tax-cuts-have-good-chance-zoellick-2017-10-14?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: FED'S CHAIR

What analysts are saying

“Given that a December rate hike is almost entirely priced in, the dollar will be driven by longer-term expectations. The three rate hikes plotted on the Fed’s dot plot for 2018, is nowhere near to markets’ expectations of only one, and the main risk facing the greenback is who will lead the Fed after Janet Yellen departs,” said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM.
marketwatch.com/story/dollar-firms-as-feds-yellen-reiterates-rate-hike-view-catalan-uncertainty-persists-2017-10-16?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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Dollar edges up as Fed leadership speculation sends up U.S. yields
investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-supported-as-us-yields-rise-on-fed-leadership-speculation-542416

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Große Steuerreform

Für Trump geht es um alles oder nichts

Die geplante Steuerreform soll dem US-Präsidenten und seiner Partei endlich den ersten großen Sieg bringen. Doch es gibt einen Risikofaktor bei dem Projekt - und der heißt Donald Trump.
Trump würde dafür auch eine massive Neuverschuldung in Kauf nehmen. Schulden sieht der gelernte Immobilienspekulant nicht als ernstes Problem - Hauptsache, er steht als Gewinner da.
Wie sagte er noch im Wahlkampf so einprägsam? "Ich bin der Schuldenkönig. Ich liebe Schulden." m.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/a-1174342.html

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FUNDMENTAL VIEW, BOND MARKTES
GUNDLACH: The bond market's 'moment of truth has arrived'
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/gundlach-the-bond-markets-moment-of-truth-has-arrived-547535

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Treasury Yields Are Surging and Bond Traders Are Starting to Get Nervous

Ten-year benchmark at highest since March has traders nervous
Looming supply glut from sovereign issuers damps sentiment

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to the highest level in more than nine months, leading Bill Gross at Janus Henderson Group to declare a bond bear market just ahead of a deluge of sovereign debt sales.
The benchmark U.S. yield rose as much as six basis points to 2.54 percent, a level last seen in March, and the Treasury curve steepened the most in three weeks, as a looming glut of bond supply from the U.S., the U.K., Japan and Germany coincided with a surprise cut in purchases of long-dated Japanese government bonds by the Bank of Japan.
Even though central bank watchers said the BOJ’s actions aren’t interpreted as an imminent shift from ultra-accommodative policy by Japan’s monetary authority, it’s yet another sign of central banks stepping back from global bond markets -- just as the U.S. is about to sell the most debt in eight years. Add to that rising market expectations around inflation, and traders are starting to wager that Treasuries are about to break out of their tightest range in a half-century.
“We’re seeing a lot of overseas buyers who would come in every time we’d have a move close to these levels who aren’t coming in anymore,” said Michael Franzese, New York-based head of fixed-income trading at MCAP LLC, a broker-dealer. “That’s kind of scaring me a little bit. One eye is constantly on the exit button.”
The 10-year yield moved above 2.5 percent earlier Tuesday before paring its gain, and then resumed its upward shift in U.S. trading hours, making fresh highs. It was at 2.542 percent as of 12:16 p.m. in New York. The yield curve from two to 10 years steepened by 5.4 basis points, the most in over a year, to 57.43 basis points.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/u-s-10-year-yield-climbs-as-boj-action-spurs-exit-speculation

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Short Term Target Reached: US TBond Yield 2,60%

Stockmarktes vs. Bond Markets:
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asian-shares-step-back-from-2007-peak-oil-at-threeyear-high-1084803

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Wall Street slips after report China may slow U.S. bond purchases

Wall Street's major indexes slipped on Wednesday, stalling the rally that marked the start of 2018, after a report that China is considering slowing or halting purchases of U.S. government debt.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) , Microsoft (O:MSFT) and Amazon (O:AMZN) were among the biggest drags on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, while a 0.7 percent drop in Boeing (N:BA) and Caterpillar (N:CAT) weighed on the Dow.
The S&P and the Nasdaq have closed at record highs on every single day in 2018, buoyed by optimism over global economic growth and expectations of a strong quarterly earnings.
"For a market that was probably looking for reason to take a pause, it's not unreasonable to use today's rise in yield as a catalyst," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR in Boston.
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-sink-on-report-china-may-slow-us-bond-purchases-1086193

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Reports on China slowing US debt buying could be based on wrong information, source says
cnbc.com/2018/01/10/reports-on-china-slowing-us-debt-buying-could-be-based-on-wrong-information-source-says.html