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Nasdaq : Possible Scenario After CPI

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As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, forex traders are constantly seeking insights to inform their strategies. The upcoming release of key indicators for the US economy provides a valuable opportunity for analysis and projection.

Forecasting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March reveals anticipated increases of 0.3% monthly and 3.4% annually. This data follows a comparable uptick in February, with a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.2% annualized growth. Additionally, projections for the US Core CPI in March suggest a 0.3% monthly expansion and a 3.7% annualized rate. This contrasts slightly with February's figures, showing a 0.4% monthly increase and a 3.8% annualized trend.

Another crucial indicator to watch is the US Preliminary Wholesale Inventories for February, with predictions indicating a 0.5% monthly rise. This stands in contrast to January's data, which revealed a 0.3% monthly decrease.

Furthermore, market attention is drawn to the US Crude Oil Inventories Change for the week ending April 5th, forecasted at 0.900M. Similarly, expectations for US Gasoline Inventories Change and US Distillate Stocks Change for the same week are -1.320M and -1.153M, respectively. These figures will be compared to the previous week's data, which reported 3.210M for crude oil, -4.256M for gasoline, and -1.268M for distillate stocks.

Additionally, the US Monthly Budget Statement for March is projected at -209.4B, deviating from February's reported figure of -296.0B.

Today's release of the US CPI data will undoubtedly influence trading sessions. An upside surprise akin to previous reports may result in a decline of US equity markets by over 1%, while lower-than-expected inflation could lead to a 1%+ spike. Furthermore, the outlook for interest rate cuts remains uncertain, with markets possibly reconciling with no cuts in 2024. However, escalating inflation could necessitate further interest rate hikes.

Amidst these developments, the forecast for the NASDAQ100 remains cautiously bearish. The equity index's stagnation at its horizontal resistance area, coupled with decreasing upside momentum, underscores the need for vigilance in trading strategies.

In conclusion, the forthcoming economic indicators offer valuable insights for forex traders navigating the complexities of today's markets. By staying informed and adaptable, traders can better position themselves to capitalize on emerging opportunities and mitigate potential risks.

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