From April to July the 10 year Treasury yield was in a downward channel. It broke below that, retested the resistance-now-support for bonds, and kept moving until it recently re-entered.
The fundamentals for long bonds still seem strong, with the cutting cycle starting with an abrupt 50bp cut, but bonds seem to be seeking support. If yields break above this channel, then we may be seeing something unexpected sniffed out by the bond market. If we retest and continue the downtrend in yields, then expect a nice downtrend back to the post-2008 norm.
The fundamentals for long bonds still seem strong, with the cutting cycle starting with an abrupt 50bp cut, but bonds seem to be seeking support. If yields break above this channel, then we may be seeing something unexpected sniffed out by the bond market. If we retest and continue the downtrend in yields, then expect a nice downtrend back to the post-2008 norm.
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