S&P500 Elliot wave Update, Last bearish count AnalyticssageによるCURRENCYCOM:US500の分析

So far all my prediction for the bearish count of this market got invalidated.
today the market closed just above the invalidation level of the bearish model so the impulsive wave is gonna unfold probably completely. the target will be the invalidation level for the big triangle we are watching. if that level gets broken then there wont be any bearish model.
All the technical indicators and wave counts suggest that market should crash but it has not happen so far.

コメント:

This is a 100% text book reversal pattern. today I was trying to find reasons for this market not to crash but it was so hard to convince myself from the analytical point of view. the bullish count just doesn't make sens!
A triangle with the wave E as a triangle . 100% text book. I don't know why it doesn't crash !

コメント:

30 minchart

コメント:

5min chart count

コメント:

e broke the invalidation level for downtrend another time!
but it doesn't mean it will go for wave 5 immediately . the current up move more looks like a corrective wave . so I will wait more for the waves to unfold more
we
there is no force for wave 5 to happen, if it doesn't happen the we will finish with a C wave and it is a valid downtrend count

コメント:

currently I can not 100% confirm that wave 4 is over.
wait .
all my counts are bearish right now.

コメント:

it seems that we are having a small wave 5 and that should it be it

コメント:

4 and 5 and then over???
let see
I have been waiting for this for weeks.

コメント:

daily chart, everything makes seance to see big big bearish move

コメント:

the market has unfold every single wave, it has not even missed a penny hahaha
this is the last wave. I am expecting a strong reversal.
lets see.

コメント:

no more wave 5! i didn't expect that to be honest! some people call the last wave a short ending 5 but I am not sure about the count so the counts are now changed

コメント:

the new wave count:

コメント:

sorry my bad,I check with the book, i looks like an ending diagonal as we had a sharp reversal
so the wave count is still valid

コメント:

so what I assumed as wave 5 (ending diagonal ) was not the wave 5. it seems that we are still in the wave 4 correction

コメント:

all, as we are still in wave 4 you can expect a long correction, don't expect the market to crash soon. also we need a wave 5. this also can appear a short truncated wave 5.
so the worse case we will see another uptrend to make a new high.
I am not considering a bullish count util we hit the invalidation level for the triangle

コメント:

first, I have not concidered the wave extension model and it is quite impossible but :
if we assume this is wave 4 then:
1- the wave 4 usually retraces 38%-50% here as you can see you have touched 38%
2- wave 4 is usually long and frustrating and usually creates a triangle or other complex structure
so I am not expecting the market to jump up crazy soon,
see this picture

コメント:

we might see something like this

コメント:

also all my analysis are based on the fact that we will not touch the triangle invalidation level
if this happen my assumption for an ending diagonal was wrong.

コメント:

also the trend line method also support my assumption that we are in wave 4
I can only confirm the end of the Impulsive wave if this channel gets broken

コメント:

I think wave 5 should end somewhere near where I have drown. as it conforms the trend channel method and fibo ratio the next fibo line invalidates the whole assumption so I am ignoring it

コメント:

also RSI inverse method suggest the following target level
so I am expecting the price to reverse in the box

コメント:

also I forgot one more senario

コメント:

so ABC or 12345?
the most difficult thing in Elliott wave theory is to predict the end of wave 5. this can also be a possiblity! and then a reversal! the wave 5 might also get extended but I don't see much chance for that

コメント:

my top scenarios are:
1- a triangle for wave 4 then wave 5 then crash
2- a short wave 5 and then crash (as i published just now)
3- a long wave 5 up to the invalidation level
4- a bullish count which I have not considered yet

コメント:

if we are gonna have a wave 4 now this will be the possible reversal point

コメント:

I never use moving averages or any-types of indicators expert RSI but not it seem the Elliote wave sell confirmation level also matches with 200 and 50 sma breaks as well.
**As we are still in wave 4 correction and I DONT have any strong evidence that wave 4 is over don't jump and short if we break the confirmation level. if we break the invalidation level it will be a strong evidence that uptrend is over. that is the first level of reversal confirmation.

コメント:

sorry for type hahah
I never use moving averages or any-types of indicators except RSI but it seem that Elliote wave sell confirmation level also matches with 200 and 50 sma breaks levels as well.
**As we are still in wave 4 correction and I DONT have any strong evidence that wave 4 is over don't jump and short if we break the confirmation level. if we break the invalidation level it will be a strong evidence that uptrend is over. that is the first level of reversal confirmation.

コメント:

now something appeared that attracted my attention. is that it? I cant promis Until we see the wave 3 starts to go down