U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC)

2月29日

U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC)
Rep: 2.8% ✅ Slight decrease as Expected ✅
Exp: 2.8%
Prev: 2.9%

U.S. Headline PCE
Rep: 2.4% ✅ Notable Decrease Expected ✅
Exp: 2.4%
Prev: 2.6%

Both Headline & Core PCE have come in lower and as expected;
✅ Core decreased from 2.9% to 2.8%
✅ Headline PCE decreased from 2.6% to 2.4%

Historical Core PCE Norms
On the chart you can see that since 1990 the typical Core PCE range is between 1 - 3% (red dotted lines on chart - green area). We are slowly getting back down into this more historically moderate level. We have fallen below the 3% level and down into the historically moderate zone for PCE levels.

The Federal Reserve have advised that Core PCE is expected to decline to 2.2% by 2025 & finally reach its 2% target in 2026. At this rate we might reach 2% a little sooner than that.

For the full breakdown of the Core and Headline PCE and to know the differences between PCE and CPI, please review the Macro Monday I previously released which explains it all (see below link).

PUKA