Interesting P.A to short on the USD/CAD right now.

2017年12月3日

Weekly gain/loss: -0.24%
Weekly closing price: 1.2683

Upside remains capped on the weekly timeframe at 1.2778, as oil continues to reflect a bullish stance. The current weekly resistance level on the USD/CAD shares a strong history that dates back to early 2004, so it is not one to ignore! Couple this with the fact that last week’s weekly action chalked up a strong-looking bearish selling wick (likely capturing the attention of candlestick traders), further selling could be in the offing this week. In the event that the market continues to dip south from here, traders’ crosshairs will likely be fixed on the weekly demand at 1.2432-1.2558. Boasting a strong base, this demand area communicates strength and, therefore, will likely hold back sellers should the area come into play.

Up until Thursday, USD/CAD bulls were on the offensive. Shaped by four near-full-bodied daily bull candles, the pair managed to climb into the walls of a daily supply zone coming in at 1.2943-1.2885. It was from here, however, that things took a turn for the worse. Completely erasing the week’s gains and closing Friday’s session in the shape of a strong full-bodied daily bearish candle, this has perhaps opened up downside to daily support at 1.2598 this week (merges with a 61.8% Fib support at 1.2618).

Looking over to the H4 candles, one can see just how aggressive selling was on Friday. Reasons for this move, as far as we can see, are as follows:

• OPEC’s decision to extend oil output cut.
• Strong oil buying on Friday.
• USD/CAD weekly resistance and daily supply mentioned above.
• Upbeat Canadian Job’s figures.
• Reports of M. Flynn, Trump’s former national security advisor, preparing to testify against the president.

For those who read Friday’s report, you may recall that the desk was interested in selling the 1.29 handle/November’s opening level at 1.2892 (H4 timeframe). We also mentioned that in order for this zone to be considered valid, a full or near-full-bodied H4 bearish candle would also be required. As you can see, there was a nice-looking H4 signal candle printed in the early hours of Friday. Unfortunately though, we were away from the desk at the time! Well done to any of our readers who caught this move – a stunning way to end the week!

Suggestions: Given how strongly H4 price closed sub 1.27 on Friday along with both weekly and daily timeframes indicating further downside, additional selling could be seen down to the 1.26 base today/this week.1.26 converges with daily support structures, so it makes for a worthy take-profit level! Beyond this line, we’d be looking at the top edge of weekly demand mentioned above at 1.2558.

For us to become sellers, we require a retest of 1.27 as resistance and a full or near-full-bodied H4 bearish candle to form following the retest. This will show that bearish intent remains and also help avoid an unnecessary loss.

Data points to consider: US factory orders m/m at 3pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.27 region (waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle to form – preferably a full or near-full-bodied candle – is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).