USDEUR: Neutral. so USD long and short set-up

2017年5月25日

USDEUR: Still stuck in neutral so we don't have make a decision here. As with DXY the market will decide from here and we can follow. Get ready to pounce, though once the market gives us the signal as there is quite a lot of energy being stored up in this narrowing battle and it will have to get released soon...

2017年5月26日

トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達

USDEUR Swing Trader Set-up
!0 Upload Embargo: nearly out of date already but this only a follow up to last comment with little change so far...
Any remaining dollar longs should have been closed out as the upside target range at 0.8949-0.8952 was tested earlier
today. Now we wait so see how far USD comes back from
here... it should come back to 0.8936-1 range and perhaps as low as 0.8915 if lucky before it rallies again. Look to get long
on this current pull-back.
Then either close out again as the 0.8949-0.8956 range is tested again or stay long (higher risk but a little higher return
if right) as the pattern looks quite strong now for USD - so be ready to go long again once 0.8958 is broken for move up to
0.9000 at least, more likely to 0.9020.
Otherwise the waiting game for swing traders continues until we see either a break out or break down. Swing traders will
stay focused on the bigger picture waiting for that next signal...
Key resistance for USD remains at 0.8949 - 0.8956 (close out any longs here) with another band of resistance potential just
above here at 0.8963 - it will need a break above 0.8958 to trigger next long (with stops just under 0.8948) - it may then
only rally to 0.8963 to begin with and then come back to test 0.8952 - 0.8949 range from above - we need to see this range
then act as support to confirm that the long trade is good, looking for a rally to kick in as more swing traders join day
traders in forcing USD up to 0.9000 (minimum) and to 0.9020 (likely maximum).
Returning to the downside near term support lies at 0.8936-1 (first buy point) with stronger support at 0.8915 - the ideal
buy point if touched - (so closest stops need to stay below here for now). Below here the next support remains 0.8906
but has to be extended to include today's spike low at 0.8899. It will now take a fall below 0.8897 to force USD back to the
lows at 0.8884-0.8874.
The Signal (looking less much less ikely in near term now): If at any point this lower level gives way by more than 5 pips it
will tip the dollar back into bear territory, the point at which swing traders will join the fray and the point at which we should too.
As always, suggest using DXY chart as confirmation - which should fall to 95.10 if the recent low breaks at any point.
Stay short of USD until DXY hits that spot and then close out. This latter scenario is looking less likely - certainly in the nearer term.