DOLLAR INDEX : BULLISH TREND RESURGENCE ?
- The market has been trading in a bearish channel since the beginning of November 2023, registering lower highs and lows, the medium-term trend is therefore bearish.
- In the shorter term, prices registered a sharp rebound above $100.50, leading to a clearing of the upper bound of the medium-term bearish channel, therefore invalidating the bearish trend. Prices are trading above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement as well as the Tenkan line, and are currently challenging the Kijun line, crucial for further upside moves.
- The trend invalidation signal having already been given, investors can now consider two scenarios for the future:
1) Lateral consolidation
2) A continuation of the bullish retracement
In order to validate scenario number two, prices must absolutely free themselves from the double resistance zone in which they are currently trading (Kijun + Market Overlap).
If this happens, a continuation of the bullish price action to $102.85, $103.65 or even higher would be something plausible.
MACRO: Since the start of 2024, economic data (inflation, job market) as well as the semantics of FED officials seem to undermine hopes of a rapid dovish monetary pivot. This situation contrasts with the hopes which brought down the Dollar at the end of 2023, and could well work in favor of the greenback in this first quarter.
- In the shorter term, prices registered a sharp rebound above $100.50, leading to a clearing of the upper bound of the medium-term bearish channel, therefore invalidating the bearish trend. Prices are trading above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement as well as the Tenkan line, and are currently challenging the Kijun line, crucial for further upside moves.
- The trend invalidation signal having already been given, investors can now consider two scenarios for the future:
1) Lateral consolidation
2) A continuation of the bullish retracement
In order to validate scenario number two, prices must absolutely free themselves from the double resistance zone in which they are currently trading (Kijun + Market Overlap).
If this happens, a continuation of the bullish price action to $102.85, $103.65 or even higher would be something plausible.
MACRO: Since the start of 2024, economic data (inflation, job market) as well as the semantics of FED officials seem to undermine hopes of a rapid dovish monetary pivot. This situation contrasts with the hopes which brought down the Dollar at the end of 2023, and could well work in favor of the greenback in this first quarter.
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