USD/JPY 4H Timeframe Analysis

1月2日

USD/JPY 4H Timeframe Analysis

Trend Analysis:
The USD/JPY pair is currently in an uptrend, although the price has displayed consolidation and manipulative moves at key levels. Initially, the price broke the minor key resistance at 157.200, indicating bullish strength. However, the price retraced below this level, breaking the minor support at 156.500, before rebounding and breaking the 157.200 resistance again.
After spending some time above 157.200, the price accumulated buying orders, forming multiple Doji candles, signaling indecision in the market. Subsequently, the price moved downward, hunting stop-loss orders placed by buyers, and broke the 156.500 support level, forming a double bottom structure. This pattern suggests a potential reversal as it indicates exhaustion in selling pressure and the likelihood of an upward move.
The price then reclaimed the 157.200 level, which has been invalidated multiple times but now acts as minor support. Observing the current uptrend, a consolidation near this support level typically signals a pause before a continuation of the bullish momentum.

Price Action Expectation:
Currently, the price is consolidating near the 157.200 minor support. Our objective is to wait for a short-term liquidity grab below this support level before the price resumes its upward momentum. A confirmed breakout above 157.440 will signal the continuation of the bullish trend.

Trade Setup:

Trade Type: Buy Stop
Entry Price: 157.440 (above the minor key resistance after a breakout)
Stop Loss: 156.120 (below the double bottom and liquidity grab zone)
Take Profit: 160.200 (next minor resistance level)

Fundamental Correlation:
The USD/JPY pair’s price movement aligns with upcoming Unemployment Claims data from the United States. The previous forecast was 219K, while the latest forecast is 222K. A higher-than-expected number could weaken the USD slightly, introducing temporary volatility. However, if the results align with or beat expectations, the USD could retain its bullish momentum, supporting the upward move in USD/JPY.

Conclusion:
The USD/JPY pair shows potential for continued bullish momentum after reclaiming key levels and forming a double bottom. Traders should monitor price action around 157.200 for signs of a liquidity grab and await confirmation of a breakout above 157.440 to initiate buy positions. Pay attention to the upcoming Unemployment Claims release as it may introduce volatility and impact trade execution.

Risk Management:
Ensure proper position sizing and maintain a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2 or better. Always adjust trades based on market developments and manage risks prudently.