USDJPY : END OF THE BULLISH TREND

7月18日

- The market has been trading inside a bullish channel for 7 months (since Jan-2024) ; the mid to long-term trend was then bullish.

- Since the latest market top registered at a new all-time high, sellers have taken control.
This situation, boosted by taking-profit moves from long investors, has led the market to a pull-back.

However, Sell traders have been so powerful, that the market has registered a bearish break-out of its long-term bullish channel, ending the bullish trend and opening the doors to a deeper correction.

Both moving averages have just registered a bearish cross, acting as dynamic resistances to prices.
The DMI indicator clearly shows a high selling pressure environment within a more and more directional price action.


- This is a bearish configuration. Even if the market still hasn't registered any new bottom, the fact prices has broken-out their long-term bullish trend can already be seen as a bearish signal.
A complete bearish reversal isn't likely at this stage, but all the technical signs point towards a correction/consolidation scenario.
The next support levels can be found around 153.68 (38.2%), 151.11 (50%) and 148.55 (61.8%) by extension.

NOTE : An extended correction could even take place when the Federal Reserve will provide solid hints regarding its next monetary easing cycle, which would be seen as a headwind for the US Dollar.


Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades


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