Full Analysis on USDJPY Focusing on Elliott Wave, MACD,

7月21日

Elliott Wave Analysis

1. Daily Chart
• The daily chart shows the USDJPY pair in a corrective phase within the larger uptrend.
• Wave 3 appears to be completed, with a sharp decline indicating the beginning of wave 4.
• The target for wave 4 correction is around the support level at 151.852. This level is crucial as it coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous impulse wave.
• Following wave 4, the pair is expected to continue its upward movement in wave 5, targeting higher resistance levels around 165.000 and potentially 170.000.
2. H4 Chart
• On the H4 chart, the structure shows the completion of wave (iii) and currently developing wave (iv).
• Wave (iv) might find support around 151.852, aligning with the daily chart analysis.
• Post correction, wave (v) is expected to resume the upward trend, with intermediate targets around 165.000.
3. H1 Chart
• The H1 chart illustrates the finer structure of the corrective wave (a) within the larger wave 4.
• The current correction might develop into a complex structure, with wave (b) potentially retracing back towards 158.930.
• A further decline to complete wave (c) could see the pair testing the 151.852 level.

MACD Analysis

• Daily MACD: Shows a bearish crossover, indicating momentum has shifted to the downside. This supports the view that the pair is in a corrective phase.
• H4 MACD: Also indicates a bearish crossover with a significant divergence, confirming the correction is ongoing.
• H1 MACD: Reflects short-term bearish momentum, aligned with the corrective wave (a).

RSI Analysis

• Daily RSI: At 36.68, the RSI suggests the pair is nearing oversold conditions, which could indicate a potential bottom for wave 4.
• H4 RSI: At 35.38, also near oversold territory, supporting the view that the correction might be close to completion.
• H1 RSI: Around 48.70, showing a neutral stance but leaning towards bearish sentiment in the short term.

Summary

• Short-Term View: USDJPY is currently in a corrective phase within a larger uptrend. The immediate target is around 151.852, where wave (iv) might complete.
• Medium-Term View: After the completion of wave (iv), expect a resumption of the upward trend towards 165.000 and potentially 170.000 as wave (v) unfolds.
• Indicators: Both MACD and RSI across multiple timeframes indicate the current bearish momentum, supporting the ongoing correction scenario.

Given this analysis, traders should look for potential buying opportunities around the 151.852 level, with confirmation from MACD and RSI signaling a reversal. A stop loss below 151.852 would be prudent, with targets at 165.000 and 170.000 as wave (v) progresses.