USDRUB exotics upd. Oct. 23, 2021
Russian Central Bank raise rates and we get boost of RUB longs against XXX pairs.
With such energy prices and fools rulers in European Union that developed recently spot market natural gas instead of Long Term contracts (as China btw did) we can expect further strength of RUB against other currencies.
What is the main risks for this long RUB positions?
The main risks is politics.
USA withdraw troops from Afghanistan, so naturally they have a lot of army nothing to do. And we can trace new spots of US attention.
First is Taiwan and clash with China, second is Ukraine, Moldova and clash with Russia.
As we look at RUB lets observe this region.
1. This week General Secretary of the NATO alliance Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia should not be afraid of Ukraine's accession to NATO, because the former cannot influence this process in any case.
We understand that there is a process of accession already.
2. "The third and final batch of additional international security-related aid worth $60 million from the U.S. government has arrived in Ukraine for the needs of the Ukrainian armed forces, including ammunition, anti-tank and precision-guided weapons, medical supplies, and so on," the ministry said in a statement posted on Twitter Friday. The first and second shipments of U.S. military aid arrived in Kiev on October 10 and 18.
Sniper rifles, artillery guns and grenade launchers are also supplied on a commercial basis. According to a report by the U.S. Defense Security and Cooperation Agency, the U.S. sold $1.47 billion worth of products to Ukraine from 2016 to 2020 as part of the foreign military supplies program (in all previous years, the value of supplies was $179.2 million).
3. Two U.S. military facilities are already under construction at Ochakov and Illyichevsk, legendary as "training centers," but in fact bases.
4. On September 26, 2021, the first military transport aircraft of the US Air Force with military equipment for the Moldovan National Army landed at the Chisinau airport. The entire batch of military equipment worth $5 million will be delivered by several aircrafts by the end of 2021.
Hotel Zentrum complex in Chisinau
With the arrival of three American planes with military equipment, there were guests.
There were so many that even they had to open the building, which was considered a reserve.
The lodgers were of the same type: they were huge, wore ill-fitting civilian clothes, and spoke English.
What is interesting: nobody has a departure date in the column period of stay. Arrival is indicated, but departure is not.
We can see how the U.S. is preparing to act, as it usually does, on the example of many other stories of coercion of any country to do something.
Here, of course, everything will be under cover and someone else's hands, but the risk of currency fluctuations is important to us.
While the process of grouping of forces is going on and there will be no external manifestations, we can expect further strengthening of the ruble. As soon as we see a foam, the ruble will sharply lose in value.
In the current situation, is there expected to be no escalation before the end of this year? In any case, I will sit tight until the end of November, hoping for a lull in the political skies.
Trade safe and wise.
Not legal and financial advice;
Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
With such energy prices and fools rulers in European Union that developed recently spot market natural gas instead of Long Term contracts (as China btw did) we can expect further strength of RUB against other currencies.
What is the main risks for this long RUB positions?
The main risks is politics.
USA withdraw troops from Afghanistan, so naturally they have a lot of army nothing to do. And we can trace new spots of US attention.
First is Taiwan and clash with China, second is Ukraine, Moldova and clash with Russia.
As we look at RUB lets observe this region.
1. This week General Secretary of the NATO alliance Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia should not be afraid of Ukraine's accession to NATO, because the former cannot influence this process in any case.
We understand that there is a process of accession already.
2. "The third and final batch of additional international security-related aid worth $60 million from the U.S. government has arrived in Ukraine for the needs of the Ukrainian armed forces, including ammunition, anti-tank and precision-guided weapons, medical supplies, and so on," the ministry said in a statement posted on Twitter Friday. The first and second shipments of U.S. military aid arrived in Kiev on October 10 and 18.
Sniper rifles, artillery guns and grenade launchers are also supplied on a commercial basis. According to a report by the U.S. Defense Security and Cooperation Agency, the U.S. sold $1.47 billion worth of products to Ukraine from 2016 to 2020 as part of the foreign military supplies program (in all previous years, the value of supplies was $179.2 million).
3. Two U.S. military facilities are already under construction at Ochakov and Illyichevsk, legendary as "training centers," but in fact bases.
4. On September 26, 2021, the first military transport aircraft of the US Air Force with military equipment for the Moldovan National Army landed at the Chisinau airport. The entire batch of military equipment worth $5 million will be delivered by several aircrafts by the end of 2021.
Hotel Zentrum complex in Chisinau
With the arrival of three American planes with military equipment, there were guests.
There were so many that even they had to open the building, which was considered a reserve.
The lodgers were of the same type: they were huge, wore ill-fitting civilian clothes, and spoke English.
What is interesting: nobody has a departure date in the column period of stay. Arrival is indicated, but departure is not.
We can see how the U.S. is preparing to act, as it usually does, on the example of many other stories of coercion of any country to do something.
Here, of course, everything will be under cover and someone else's hands, but the risk of currency fluctuations is important to us.
While the process of grouping of forces is going on and there will be no external manifestations, we can expect further strengthening of the ruble. As soon as we see a foam, the ruble will sharply lose in value.
In the current situation, is there expected to be no escalation before the end of this year? In any case, I will sit tight until the end of November, hoping for a lull in the political skies.
Trade safe and wise.
Not legal and financial advice;
Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
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