Volatility is contained, but for how long?

2022年5月28日

Despite the Russia-Ukraine war, despite inflation being at record highs, the DXY making a new high since 2015-2016, the bond market being in its largest bear market and with equities down 20-30%, the VIX hasn't really spiked yet. So far volatility has been contained and every time the VIX would get overbought at 35 or above, it would slowly get back down. However I don't believe that it can get much lower without spiking first. In the short term it could get down to 20, but given the current circumstances, it is very hard for me to imagine that the top for the VIX won't come at around 48 or above. It is also very hard for me to imagine that it would get significantly below 20, therefore going long the VIX at 20 or below is a great strategy until the Fed pivots. However once it gets to 48 or higher it is time to start going long everything as the Fed is probably going to step in and try to save markets.