ロング

WEED Triangle and the Bull Market

アップデート済

We had a false breakout on the continuation cycle, but there is still a possible triangle pattern.

ノート

Forgot to add one of my main points for this.

In my opinion the false breakout occurred because it broke out early. It seems we are now seeing healthy consolidation. A close below the support zone (about 16.67-17.05) and the continuation pattern will most likely fail.

ノート

Also, my support line may be a little low; I'm using it as a general guide. The important part is that it forms a higher low.

Happy trading,
Charles

ノート

Here is a fun fact since it's pre-market and I'm bored. These patterns like to break twice in a Bull Market. Don't ask me why, but true story. (I suspect it's the market lords getting theirs but you didn't hear that from me) Usually they "kickback" first, meaning they break the wrong way; and then bust back through and out the top of the triangle. This one broke out the top first so we'll see what happens. I hope it's just the Bulls getting antsy.

ノート

Well turdmuffins, it hit my target but the order didn't fill. Nothing like missing your own play :p

No worries, this is the time for patience. If it looks like it is going to close over the downtrend line eod than I may add a small amount to the position I already have and hold overnight. Otherwise I will wait for the next test of support.

Time to see how this plays out.

ノート

I wanted to share this. I made a nice chart but TV wouldn't let me post a 5 min chart, obnoxious. So I'm posting here.

The flag on WEED 5 min was tempting but there were red flags. (pun intended)

Problem 1) Strong resistance was close by.
Problem 2) The flag was rising, this reduces the odds that it will confirm. When a Bull Flag trends down it coils and builds momentum to recover from the weakening trend. It also gives more room to run and cools off the RSI.
Problem 3) The volume was not descending. Volume that is stepping down gives better odds.

The MACD and RSI were confirming that it did not have the umph to break.

ノート

Well this has been super so far. Here comes the fun part (praying hands). I'm going to shoot for 17.40's, I'm not going to overly penny pinch on my first buy. Since I'm planning on this being a swing trade I am going to build a position with a couple buys.

I'm a little paranoid about a false kickback. The market gods like to keep things exciting.

ノート

Looks like the Bulls are getting antsy again, this may break tomorrow morning. I am going to play the break, but I would be surprised if it has the juice to break the recent high. If it gets anywhere close I'm going to take profit. Holding will be tempting but no one has ever gone broke taking profit.

ノート

Today played out as I expected. I sold a large part of my position into the break today. It is not building enough momentum to break the second downtrend line which runs off the wicks of the candles where it rejected. I believe it will consolidate down one more time and we will get another break, but I don't believe there will be enough momentum to break the high.

ノート

I closed most of my position at 19.98 today. I think it may go a bit higher, but I stuck to my game plan.

Happy trading,
Charles

Trade Closed

ノート

Pew Pew Pew

What a move over the last couple days. I was concerned that the initially weak breaks from the Symmetrical Triangle were going to weaken the momentum, but the consolidation after the 20.20 rejection provided enough coil to break the ATH.

Anyways, this was a fun chart to follow. It's a great example of why we follow these patterns: coil and momentum is real.

Cheers,
Charles