A look at M2 Money Stock

7月31日

Out of curiosity I took a look M2 to see the trends over the years and how it compares to COVID and the last few years. I don't have any great revelations to share about what to do, but I thought the chart was interesting. I also did some research and used ChatGPT to help me create a summary about M2. Please note that I cannot guarantee the following text is perfectly accurate, I am not a financial expert or advisor, but it is an interesting overview. Enjoy.



1) Introduction:
Money Stock Measure 2, or M2, is a comprehensive measure of the money supply that includes various types of financial assets held by the public. It encompasses M1 — which consists of the most liquid forms of money like cash and checking deposits — and adds less liquid forms such as savings deposits, time deposits under $100,000, and retail money market mutual funds. This broader measure provides a more complete picture of the available money within an economy than M1 alone.

2) Why M2 Matters to the Economy and the Stock Market:

• Monetary Policy Indicator: M2 growth rates can indicate the looseness or tightness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Rapid growth in M2 may suggest a looser policy with potential implications for lower interest rates, while slower growth could indicate a tightening policy stance.
  
• Economic Health Predictor: Fluctuations in M2 can signal upcoming changes in economic activity. An expanding M2 typically suggests that more money is flowing into the economy, potentially boosting consumer spending and overall economic growth. However, if this expansion leads to inflation without an accompanying increase in real output, it could be detrimental.
  
• Interest Rate Influence: Since M2 impacts interest rates, it indirectly affects the stock market. Lower interest rates from an increased M2 can reduce borrowing costs and stimulate both capital expenditures and consumer spending, which generally supports higher stock prices.
  
• Inflation Expectations: Inflation can erode the purchasing power of money. An inflating M2 can lead investors to adjust their expectations, impacting bond yields and stock valuations.
  

3) As an investor, monitoring M2 can enhance decision-making in several ways:

• Growth Trends: Observing whether M2 is expanding or contracting can provide clues about future economic conditions and monetary policy directions, helping investors anticipate market movements.
  
• Asset Allocation: During periods of M2 expansion (indicative of lower interest rates), investors might favor stocks, particularly in sectors like consumer discretionary that benefit from increased consumer spending. Conversely, a slowdown in M2 growth could be a signal to move towards safer assets like short-term bonds, which are less sensitive to interest rate rises.
  
• Sector Impacts: Different sectors react differently to changes in M2. For example, financials might benefit from higher interest rates, while sectors sensitive to consumer spending could gain from an expansionary M2 environment.
  
• Inflation Hedge: Rapid increases in M2 that might lead to inflation suggest that investors should consider assets that typically perform well during inflationary periods, such as commodities or real estate.
  
• Global Considerations: For those invested internationally, understanding how M2 changes affect global markets and capital flows is crucial, particularly in how developed economies' liquidity influences emerging markets.
  

4) Conclusion:
M2 is a critical economic indicator that offers valuable insights into future monetary policies, economic health, and market directions. It is not a perfect metric on its own, but by integrating M2 data into broader market analyses and considering its implications on different sectors and asset classes, investors can make more informed decisions, optimizing their portfolios to better navigate the complexities of financial markets.

7月31日

コメント

Here is a very interesting and very relevant explanation of how M2 has an impact on inflation, which from the description is pretty much what has happened over the last few years.

The relationship between M2 (the broader measure of the money supply) and inflation is rooted in basic economic principles of supply and demand, monetary theory, and the velocity of money. Here’s a detailed breakdown of how M2 can influence inflation:

1. Basic Money Supply and Demand
The quantity theory of money provides a foundational explanation for the relationship between the money supply and inflation. It can be expressed as:

MV=PQ

Where:
M is the money supply (including M2),
V is the velocity of money (the rate at which money is exchanged from one transaction to another),
P is the price level,
Q is the output of goods and services produced by the economy.

According to this theory, if the money supply (M) increases faster than real economic output (Q), then either the velocity of money (V) must decrease or the price level (P) must increase. Historically, the velocity of money is relatively stable in the short run, so increases in the money supply typically lead to increases in the price level — in other words, inflation.

2. Increased Consumer Spending
As M2 expands, it indicates more money is available in the economy, not just in liquid forms (like cash and checking accounts), but also in slightly less liquid forms like savings accounts and money market funds. This availability can lead to increased consumer spending. When consumers have more money, their demand for goods and services tends to increase. If supply doesn't rise to meet this increased demand, prices will likely increase, leading to inflation.

3. Expectations and Wage-Price Spirals
The expectation of inflation itself can be a driver of inflation. If businesses expect future price increases, they may raise prices preemptively. Similarly, if workers expect inflation, they may demand higher wages, which businesses then pass on to consumers in the form of higher prices, creating a wage-price spiral. An expanding M2 can fuel these inflationary expectations if market participants believe that it signifies an ongoing increase in the money available to spend.

4. Impact on Interest Rates
As discussed earlier, an expansion in M2 typically leads to lower interest rates. While initially, this may boost economic activity, over the long term, lower interest rates can increase inflationary pressures. This is because cheaper credit allows more spending and investing, pushing up demand. Again, if supply does not keep pace, the result is higher prices.

5. Velocity of Money
The velocity of money (V) also plays a critical role. If M2 increases but the velocity of money does not decrease (i.e., money keeps changing hands quickly), the effect on inflation could be pronounced. However, if the velocity of money falls, it might offset some inflationary pressures from an increasing M2. Post-2008 financial crisis data in many economies showed a substantial increase in M2 without corresponding inflation, partly because the velocity of money declined significantly.

6. Central Bank Policies
Central banks monitor M2 and other monetary aggregates to adjust their policies. If they perceive too much inflationary pressure from an expanding money supply, they may take steps to tighten the monetary conditions, such as raising interest rates or selling off assets to reduce the money supply.

Conclusion
Thus, M2 affects inflation primarily through its influence on the amount of money circulating in the economy and its impact on spending, interest rates, and economic expectations. Central banks carefully watch these dynamics to manage inflationary pressures effectively.