XAU Long until Elections Fundermental Analysis

7月11日

https://www.tradingview.com/x/iu8o2kZG/


I recently had some free time and compared the market trends during past US elections with the current state (early July). I noticed that the market tends to establish a clear direction from June to July and maintains this trend until the elections.

Historical Trends:

2008: The all-time high (ATH) from March was not broken. From July, there was a clear trend for almost 10 weeks.
2012: A bottom formed in the previous year held. Starting in July, there were 12 bearish weeks with a clear direction.
2016 (Trump elections): We had a clear bull run until July when it became known that Donald Trump had a majority over the Democrats. This was followed by a clear bear run for 12 straight weeks.
2020: We experienced a bull run starting in March. The bottom in gold was tested, and then the market went straight up. From July, the real bull run began, leading to the then-current ATH, which was also influenced by the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. 2020 showed a significantly oversized push, likely attracting many bears. After the ATH in August, a 12-week bear run followed.
Current Situation and Outlook:

How can we apply these historical patterns to the present situation? This week has definitely set the trend, and it is very likely that we will see a new ATH again, especially in the next one to two weeks.

Expectations:

Will there be a complete selloff?
Considering the geopolitical situation, the US elections, and other factors, I strongly believe that we have set a direction this week that many will not foresee.
I think gold will establish its direction in the next 6-12 weeks, and a selloff might only occur after the elections.
Oh yeah, it’s also funny that every time from July until the end of the US elections (November), gold has made an average move of 15%. If we assume that this will be the case again, we will see our ATH at 2750-2800.