Oil/Gold Short Setup: Inverted Cup & Handle (XLE/GLD)

2023年6月9日

After a steep decline in $XLE/GLD, the chart has now formed the highlighted cup & handle.
Combine this with the observation that CPI YoY & Core PCE YoY (USCCPI) are in strong declining trends, which historically correlates negatively with oil (and oil-related equities) and positively with gold.

Executing on this idea: use a lower-vega strategy:

1. Low (2x max) leverage
   
2. Short XLE: directly short sell the shares, or buy inverse ETF (DUG, ERY).
   
3. Long GLD: Just buy GLD, or go 2x with $UGL. Make sure that it balances your XLE short after accounting for leverage.
   

2023年6月9日

ノート

(**Why low vega**: VIX seems to be suppressed at this time, which means that even if the price performs to target, your options strategy might severely underperform b/c the expected IVOL bump fails to materialize.)

2023年7月26日

ノート

I'm closing out this trade b/c oil crossed my stops.