Ripple Long-Term View

Ripple(XRP/USD)

Ripple

Overview

Ripple(XRP/USD) has suffered about 91+% correction(drop) since all time high-level price($3.3+) reached in January’18.It has seen significant upward movement in the month of September’18(110+%) and is now retesting a major support level.

Let us continue to analyze price action for Ripple(XRP/USD) over the long term and proceed to highlight any potential areas of support and resistance moving forward.

Long-Term Analysis (Monthly Timeframe)

Scenario 1: Bullish (Uptrend)

The bullish argument one can see on the XRP/USD chart is that it has been respecting the long-term trend-line(since July'17) pretty well. The trend-line was tested in September'18 which lead to a movement of 110+% upside. It is retesting again now and we might see an upside movement to the Resistance Zone 1 ranging from $0.63--$0.71 if the Support Zone from $0.16--$0.29 holds well.
Support Zone is quite a strong area of bounce as its the previous year resistance now turned support.
If Ripple held the trend-line then it might follow path "1" as specified in the chart.
If it manages to close above "Resistance(Sell) Zone 1" then it will retest "Resistance(Sell) Zone 2" ranging from -$0.84--$0.98 within few months which might show some sign of bullish confirmation.
Stochastic RSI is also in the oversold region with an upward trend.

Scenario 2: Bearish (Downtrend)

If the monthly candle(December) closes below $0.28 and the trend-line doesn't hold up then we might follow the path "2".
If the trend-line is broken with strong sell volume then the trend-line will act as a strong resistance area to break in the future.
Generally, if the trend-line is retested multiple times then it becomes weaker.

Note: Monthly time frame charts illustrates the movement of price over a long-term horizon and are most often used by long-term investors.

Short-Term Analysis (Daily and Weekly)

Scenario 1: Bullish (Uptrend)

The weekly chart of (XRP/USD) shows that the long downtrend line(red dotted) has been broken with significant buy volume showing bullish signs.
It tested the support zone and jumped 110+% in September'18 proving this zone to be strong support.
If this support zone held in the coming weeks/month then we might retest the Resistance Zone 1 ranging from $0.58--$0.70.
We get the confirmations of the next bull cycle only if the Resistance zone 2 ranging from $0.88-$1 is broken with significant buy volume.

Scenario 2: Bearish (Downtrend)

If the support zone is broken with significant sell volume then we might test area of $0.07-0.14$ price levels and support zone will act as a strong resistance area to be broken in the near future.

News and event analysis:
One of the major catalyst which happened in the past that, 42nd President of the United States Bill Clinton was a keynote speaker in the Swell conference held in the October'18.
Many banks are experimenting with its Ripple network(xRapid) for money transfer across borders.
There is still decision to be made by SEC(USA) authorities whether or not Ripple is security.

Conclusion:

Ripple remains in 2nd position, in terms of overall market cap rankings along with Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The 65-month-old coin is now experiencing its first bear market and has already corrected enough(91% down) to commence its new bull cycle in coming weeks/months.
People likely showed interest in Ripple as it offers a cheap alternative in terms of asset price when compared to bitcoin and other crypto assets with good fundamentals.
The only concern lies with Ripple is of categorizing it to be a Security which might lead to retail traders not able to participate in trading.