tl;dr: "Cash come-in, market moon; Cash go-out, market doom"
In Simple Language: Large changes in the money flow to an asset often mark local price extremia.
Title: Z-Score(Slope(OBV)): An Efficient Indicator for Identifying Local Extremes in Asset Prices
Abstract: This paper presents a novel trading indicator, Z-Score(Slope(OBV)), that aims to predict local extremes in asset prices by analyzing the patterns of money flow. The indicator is constructed using the Z-score of the slope of the On Balance Volume (OBV).
Hypothesis: The price levels at which the money flows into and out of an asset often mark local extremes. This notion underpins our exploration of the Z-Score(Slope(OBV)) indicator's potential in identifying these critical points.
1. On Balance Volume (OBV): The OBV is a momentum indicator that leverages the volume flow to forecast potential changes in asset prices. It operates on the premise that changes in volume often presage shifts in price. The OBV algorithm adds a period's volume to the cumulative total when the closing price is up and subtracts it when the closing price is down. Therefore, an ascending OBV suggests positive volume pressure, potentially heralding higher prices, while a declining OBV signifies negative volume pressure, possibly indicating lower prices.
2. Slope: In this context, the slope represents the rate of change of the OBV. It is a measure of the rise-over-run for a linear regression line through the OBV data points. By evaluating the slope of the OBV, we can extract valuable insights into the momentum of the volume. A positive slope indicates increasing volume momentum, suggesting growing interest in the asset, while a negative slope implies declining volume momentum, potentially reflecting dwindling interest.
3. Z-Score: The Z-score is a statistical measure that delineates a data point's relationship to the mean of a group of values, expressed in terms of standard deviations from the mean. For instance, a Z-score of 0 reveals that the data point's score aligns with the mean score. Positive Z-scores indicate values higher than the mean, and negative Z-scores represent values lower than the mean. Applying the Z-score to the slope of the OBV allows us to comprehend the degree of deviation of the current OBV slope from its historical mean.
- A Z-score of 1 suggests that the OBV's slope is one standard deviation from the mean, which implies that the slope is within the range of values where approximately 68% (not 67%) of all values lie.
- A Z-score of 2 implies that the slope is two standard deviations from the mean, thus within the range where roughly 95% of all values lie.
- A Z-score of 3 indicates that the slope is three standard deviations from the mean, putting it within the range where about 99.7% of all values lie.
- Z-scores of 4 and 5 and beyond are increasingly rare and represent extreme values.
4. The Z-Score(Slope(OBV)) Indicator and Line Break Chart Synergy: The Z-Score(Slope(OBV)) indicator's efficiency is further amplified when visualized using a Line Break chart. This chart type disregards time, concentrating solely on price changes, thus providing a clear visualization of market trends. When combined with the Line Break chart, the Z-Score(Slope(OBV(LBC))) indicator can help traders identify trend shifts more accurately and promptly, reinforcing the hypothesis that price levels where money flows into and out of an asset often mark local extremes.
In summary, the Z-Score(Slope(OBV)) indicator, combining volume, momentum, and statistical analysis, provides a robust tool for traders to predict local extremes in asset prices.
- This is implemented using Pinescript V5
- Uses inbuilt ta module
- Very effective and simple and efficient computation in 30 lines of code