MoonFlag Converging Bands
This script form a cloud that is made from multiple lines that are each similar to a moving average.
However, each line is different to moving averages as it uses an algorithm that is nonlinear, 'overshoot moving averages' better explains how they work.
A cloud (visible on the indicator plot) is formed from multiple 'overshoot moving average' lines, each with a different lookback length.
A single variable is provided in the settings which extends all lines which form the cloud.
So the cloud is formed from the max and min from multiple 'nonlinear' moving averages.
What is interesting here is that, ....when the cloud lines narrow or converge..... ,this signifies that all moving averages are narrowing.
However, as the algo does not use standard moving averages - it is a bit more spicy and has some merit with predicting a big or biggish move in advance, before it happens.
So, the overshoot moving averages have a predictive quality.
Whereas, standard moving averages always lag the present time price action.
Indeed, most indicators are based on moving averages and lag the price action.
I'll try and explain how the overshoot moving average works...
Each line which forms the cloud gives an indication of the price trend momentum.
So if the price action rises above a line. the line will follow and move up, however, when the price action reduces momentum or starts to move downwards, the underlying momentum will push the line to overshoot the price action. Hence the price action crossing lines (or extending beyond the cloud) can indicate a change in momentum of a price trend.
There is also a median line shown which can be quite useful. If the price action stays about the median, this would suggest increasing bullish momentum. Then if the price action crosses the median - this is reasonable grounds to think about getting out of a trade as a change in momentum, on multiple timeframes has occured.
So, ... why is this wavecloud important or how is it useful.
When the wavecloud gets narrow - this generally means that all moving averages are converging. However, moving averages lag real-time price action and therefore lack a predictive speculation. With the waveclound presented in this indicator, when the wavecloud narrows this can suggest/predict a sizeable move is about to happen. In the settings, there is a narrowing % variable which can be adjusted depending on which coin or timeframe someone is working with. If there is a lot of background shading (faster timeframes)- decrease the % narrowing. Conversely, if there is insufficient background lines (with longer timeframes), increase the narrowing %.
There are a few trends which are exceptions to predicting a big move. One is that the price trend continues at a steady pace and hence the wavecloud narrows on a steadily increasing or decreasing price.
Another is that the price is choppy and just goes up and down throwing all moving averages or most indicators into a non useful state. However, adjust the narrowing % for whatever price action is in play at the time and you might find you can neatly pick out a big price change.
So, which way does a big price action move go, up or down, I'll leave this one to you. If one is trying to find the end point of a massive bull run - there might be a wavecloud narrowing at the top, just before the price suddenly drops. If its sometime after a big crash and the price action has already been through a choppy phase, its possibly time for a big rise after one last sharp drop. There are all sorts of price action wavecloud formations however, nothing very predictive in terms of suggesting when a big move might be soon to happen is otherwise available. (Although I did find my other script 'Volume Effectiveness' has some merits.)
Timeframe is an important factor with this algorithm. I think the 4hour timeframe with bitcoin is reasonable. I've not extensively tested with other coins however, faster timeframes always render unpredictable results. Also if the timeframe is too long - its difficult to suggest what is going to happen in the near future.
However, each line is different to moving averages as it uses an algorithm that is nonlinear, 'overshoot moving averages' better explains how they work.
A cloud (visible on the indicator plot) is formed from multiple 'overshoot moving average' lines, each with a different lookback length.
A single variable is provided in the settings which extends all lines which form the cloud.
So the cloud is formed from the max and min from multiple 'nonlinear' moving averages.
What is interesting here is that, ....when the cloud lines narrow or converge..... ,this signifies that all moving averages are narrowing.
However, as the algo does not use standard moving averages - it is a bit more spicy and has some merit with predicting a big or biggish move in advance, before it happens.
So, the overshoot moving averages have a predictive quality.
Whereas, standard moving averages always lag the present time price action.
Indeed, most indicators are based on moving averages and lag the price action.
I'll try and explain how the overshoot moving average works...
Each line which forms the cloud gives an indication of the price trend momentum.
So if the price action rises above a line. the line will follow and move up, however, when the price action reduces momentum or starts to move downwards, the underlying momentum will push the line to overshoot the price action. Hence the price action crossing lines (or extending beyond the cloud) can indicate a change in momentum of a price trend.
There is also a median line shown which can be quite useful. If the price action stays about the median, this would suggest increasing bullish momentum. Then if the price action crosses the median - this is reasonable grounds to think about getting out of a trade as a change in momentum, on multiple timeframes has occured.
So, ... why is this wavecloud important or how is it useful.
When the wavecloud gets narrow - this generally means that all moving averages are converging. However, moving averages lag real-time price action and therefore lack a predictive speculation. With the waveclound presented in this indicator, when the wavecloud narrows this can suggest/predict a sizeable move is about to happen. In the settings, there is a narrowing % variable which can be adjusted depending on which coin or timeframe someone is working with. If there is a lot of background shading (faster timeframes)- decrease the % narrowing. Conversely, if there is insufficient background lines (with longer timeframes), increase the narrowing %.
There are a few trends which are exceptions to predicting a big move. One is that the price trend continues at a steady pace and hence the wavecloud narrows on a steadily increasing or decreasing price.
Another is that the price is choppy and just goes up and down throwing all moving averages or most indicators into a non useful state. However, adjust the narrowing % for whatever price action is in play at the time and you might find you can neatly pick out a big price change.
So, which way does a big price action move go, up or down, I'll leave this one to you. If one is trying to find the end point of a massive bull run - there might be a wavecloud narrowing at the top, just before the price suddenly drops. If its sometime after a big crash and the price action has already been through a choppy phase, its possibly time for a big rise after one last sharp drop. There are all sorts of price action wavecloud formations however, nothing very predictive in terms of suggesting when a big move might be soon to happen is otherwise available. (Although I did find my other script 'Volume Effectiveness' has some merits.)
Timeframe is an important factor with this algorithm. I think the 4hour timeframe with bitcoin is reasonable. I've not extensively tested with other coins however, faster timeframes always render unpredictable results. Also if the timeframe is too long - its difficult to suggest what is going to happen in the near future.