The "Trend Reversal Probability Calculator" is a TradingView indicator that calculates the probability of a trend reversal based on the crossover of multiple moving averages and the rate of change (ROC) of their slopes. This indicator is designed to help traders identify potential trend reversals by providing signals when the short-term moving averages start to...
Understanding the Indicator:
The indicator calculates the probabilities of upward and downward trends based on the percentage change in price over a specified lookback period.
It displays these probabilities in a table and plots a histogram to represent the difference between the probabilities.
The colors of the histogram bars indicate the trend direction and...
Library "BenfordsLaw"
Methods to deal with Benford's law which states that a distribution of first and higher order digits
of numerical strings has a characteristic pattern.
"Benford's law is an observation about the leading digits of the numbers found in real-world data sets.
Intuitively, one might expect that the leading digits of these numbers would be...
Library "MarkovChain"
Generic Markov Chain type functions.
---
A Markov chain or Markov process is a stochastic model describing a sequence of possible events in which the
probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event.
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reference:
Understanding Markov Chains, Examples and Applications. Second Edition. Book by Nicolas...
Library "FunctionProbabilityViterbi"
The Viterbi Algorithm calculates the most likely sequence of hidden states *(called Viterbi path)*
that results in a sequence of observed events.
viterbi(observations, transitions, emissions, initial_distribution)
Calculate most probable path in a Markov model.
Parameters:
observations (int ) : array ....
Library "FunctionBaumWelch"
Baum-Welch Algorithm, also known as Forward-Backward Algorithm, uses the well known EM algorithm
to find the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters of a hidden Markov model given a set of observed
feature vectors.
---
### Function List:
> `forward (array pi, matrix a, matrix b, array obs)`
> `forward (array pi, matrix a,...
An experimental indicator that uses historical prices and readings of technical indicators to give the probability that stock and crypto prices will be in a certain range on the next close. This indicator may be helpful for options traders or for traders who want to see the probability of a move.
It classifies returns into five categories:
Extreme Rise -...
This script is a quantitative price forecasting indicator that forecasts price changes for a given asset.
The model aims to forecast future prices by analyzing past data within a selected time period. Mathematical probability is used to calculate whether starting from time X can lead to reaching prices Y1 and Y2. In this context, X represents the current...
This script calculates upper and lower bands using Chebyshev's inequality formula.
The main pros.: the band doesn't depend on particular distribution. It fits to any type of random variables. Also it allows to calculate bands for instruments with extremely high volatility.
Cons.: formula provides a rough estimation in some special cases like lognormal distribution.
Three trend indicators in one. Fork of Gunslinger2005 indicator, with a fix to display the nQQE oscillator correctly and clearly, and converted to pinescript v5 (allowing to set a different timeframe and gaps).
How to use: Essentially, nQQE is a long term trend indicator which is more adequate in daily or weekly timeframe to indicate the current market cycle....
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This is the BASIC version of the PROBABILITY CLOUD indicator.
It is an evolution beyond traditional standard deviation probabilistic indicators only using bands or channels.
The new PROBABILITY CLOUD graphic representation with customizable transparent layers is based on -2 / +2 standard deviation calculated using 20 fixed predetermined time periods, and is...
█ Overview
Breakout Probability is a valuable indicator that calculates the probability of a new high or low and displays it as a level with its percentage. The probability of a new high and low is backtested, and the results are shown in a table— a simple way to understand the next candle's likelihood of a new high or low. In addition, the indicator displays...
This script is meant to help verify the existence of a seasonal effect in asset returns, using a Z-test. There are three steps:
1. Think of a way to identify a season. The available methods are: by month, by week of the year, by day of the month, by day of the week, by hour of the day, and by minute of the hour.
2. Set the chart to the unit of your season. For...
A probability cone is an indicator that forecasts a statistical distribution from a set point in time into the future.
Features
Forecast a Standard or Laplace distribution.
Change the how many bars the cones will lookback and sample in their calculations.
Set how many bars to forecast the cones.
Let the cones follow price from a set number of bars back.
...
Based on historical data (rather than theory), calculates the probability of a price level being "touched" within a given time frame. A "touch" means that price exceeded that level at some point. The parameters are:
- level: the "level" to be touched. it can be a number of points, percentage points, or standard deviations away from the mark price. a positive...
Library "FunctionProbabilityDistributionSampling"
Methods for probability distribution sampling selection.
sample(probabilities) Computes a random selected index from a probability distribution.
Parameters:
probabilities : float array, probabilities of sample.
Returns: int.
Library "FunctionSMCMC"
Methods to implement Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation (MCMC)
markov_chain(weights, actions, target_path, position, last_value) a basic implementation of the markov chain algorithm
Parameters:
weights : float array, weights of the Markov Chain.
actions : float array, actions of the Markov Chain.
target_path : float...
![BTCUSDT: VS Score [SpiritualHealer117]](https://s3.tradingview.com/q/Qi3U7LxL_mid.png "VS Score [SpiritualHealer117]")
![TSLA: Probability Cloud BASIC [@AndorraInvestor]](https://s3.tradingview.com/1/11Nbv8Sw_mid.png "Probability Cloud BASIC [@AndorraInvestor]")
